Outsized Fed cut consensus wavers despite weak payrolls

Name: Outsized Fed cut consensus wavers despite weak payrolls
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-07-04T04:02:00.000Z
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Kalshi 10%

record: CMSIG2026070402 | category: momentum-repricing | target: CM-EVT-RWRZ1R3SD6 | published: 2026-07-04

4-bullet brief | narrative

Kalshi prices only a 10% chance the Fed cuts by more than 25 basis points in any single meeting.
Warsh's inflation-first posture, even after the jobs miss, is consistent with the market's low probability on an outsized cut.
The Fed funds ladder separately implies the current upper bound holds near 3.50-3.75%, reinforcing a gradualist path.
Resolves via the official Federal Reserve post-meeting rate decision; a 50bp-or-larger cut in any 2026 meeting would trigger a YES.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] news_event

significance

surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market

story: June payrolls missed badly at 57,000 with downward revisions, yet Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh maintained an inflation-first stance.exa_search → Shaun Connell · as_of 2026-07-06T12:00:14+00:00
publisher: Shaun Connell
published_at: 2026-07-04T04:02:00.000Z
source_url: https://livegoldprices.com/june-payrolls-miss-by-half-but-warshs-fed-stays-locked-on-inflation/

[02] pm_response

interp: Kalshi at 10% reflects the market absorbing weak payrolls without repricing for aggressive easing, consistent with the hawkish Fed communications.llm_judge_cm_signal_v1

evaluation

News-cycle wires publish on coverage, not editorial selection — the day’s top stories matched to the prediction markets pricing them, so nothing is cherry-picked.

judge_engine: none — deterministic news-cycle scan
judge_verdict: auto_published
judge_confidence: n/a — no judge gate (deterministic publishing)
prompt_template: news_cycle_v1 github · auditable
match_method: entity_slug_match (mechanical)

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/kxlargecut-26/

external

venue_a: https://kalshi.com/markets/KXLARGECUT-26

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-cut-over-25bp-in-single-move-kalshi-10-2026-07-04/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-cut-over-25bp-in-single-move-kalshi-10-2026-07-04.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("fed-cut-over-25bp-in-single-move-kalshi-10-2026-07-04")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026070402",
  "published_at": "2026-07-04T04:02:00.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-RWRZ1R3SD6",
  "target_event_slug": "kxlargecut-26",
  "event_question": "Will the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by more than 25 basis points in a single action this year?",
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prices only a 10% chance the Fed cuts by more than 25 basis points in any single meeting.",
    "Warsh's inflation-first posture, even after the jobs miss, is consistent with the market's low probability on an outsized cut.",
    "The Fed funds ladder separately implies the current upper bound holds near 3.50-3.75%, reinforcing a gradualist path.",
    "Resolves via the official Federal Reserve post-meeting rate decision; a 50bp-or-larger cut in any 2026 meeting would trigger a YES."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Shaun Connell",
          "source_url": "https://livegoldprices.com/june-payrolls-miss-by-half-but-warshs-fed-stays-locked-on-inflation/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-07-06T12:00:14+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "June payrolls missed badly at 57,000 with downward revisions, yet Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh maintained an inflation-first stance.",
      "publisher": "Shaun Connell",
      "published_at": "2026-07-04T04:02:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://livegoldprices.com/june-payrolls-miss-by-half-but-warshs-fed-stays-locked-on-inflation/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi at 10% reflects the market absorbing weak payrolls without repricing for aggressive easing, consistent with the hawkish Fed communications."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/kxlargecut-26/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": "https://kalshi.com/markets/KXLARGECUT-26",
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Shaun Connell: June Jobs Miss: Fed's Warsh Holds Inflation-First Stance",
      "url": "https://livegoldprices.com/june-payrolls-miss-by-half-but-warshs-fed-stays-locked-on-inflation/",
      "published_at": "2026-07-04T04:02:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-06T12:00:14+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG2026070402 published 2026-07-04T04:02:00.000Z signature sha256-146f867a408… ← underlying event all signals →