Fed rate cut above 25 basis points stays a near-certain long shot
Kalshi 3%
record: CMSIG2026100503 | category: pre-event-pricing | target: CM-EVT-RWRZ1R3SD6 | published: 2026-10-05
4-bullet brief | narrative
- Kalshi puts only 3% odds on the Fed cutting rates by more than 25 basis points at any point in 2026.
- With Schmid warning inflation has 'a way to go' and the October hike debate still live, a jumbo cut this year is priced as nearly impossible.
- The Kalshi ladder on the post-October upper bound sits near 4.00%, coherent with a market that sees no large cuts coming.
- Resolves via the Federal Reserve's official rate decisions through year-end 2026.
atomic briefs | structured for retrieval
[01] news_event
significance
surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market
- story
- FOMC minutes from the September 15-16 meeting are due October 7, with markets watching for guidance on the pace and size of any future rate adjustments.exa_search → Admirals Expert Verified · as_of 2026-10-07T07:47:51+00:00 [mediated]
- publisher
- Admirals Expert Verified
- published_at
- 2026-10-05T00:00:00.000Z
[02] pm_response
- interp
- Kalshi contract at 3%; pricing is consistent across the rate complex with no internal contradictions.llm_judge_cm_signal_v1 [editorial]
evaluation
News-cycle wires publish on coverage, not editorial selection — the day’s top stories matched to the prediction markets pricing them, so nothing is cherry-picked.
- judge_engine
none — deterministic news-cycle scan- judge_verdict
- auto_published
- judge_confidence
- n/a — no judge gate (deterministic publishing)
- prompt_template
news_cycle_v1github · auditable- match_method
entity_slug_match (mechanical)
citation graph
Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.
internal
- cm_event
- /events/kxlargecut-26/
external
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-cut-over-25bps-in-2026-kalshi-3-2026-10-05/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-cut-over-25bps-in-2026-kalshi-3-2026-10-05.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_signal("fed-cut-over-25bps-in-2026-kalshi-3-2026-10-05") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
"provenance_version": "0.2.0",
"record_id": "CMSIG2026100503",
"published_at": "2026-10-05T00:00:00.000Z",
"detection": "news_cycle",
"category_tag": "PRE_EVENT_PRICING",
"secondary_tags": [],
"pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
"target_event_id": "CM-EVT-RWRZ1R3SD6",
"target_event_slug": "kxlargecut-26",
"event_question": "Will the Federal Reserve do a rate cut greater than 25 basis points this year?",
"bullets": [
"Kalshi puts only 3% odds on the Fed cutting rates by more than 25 basis points at any point in 2026.",
"With Schmid warning inflation has 'a way to go' and the October hike debate still live, a jumbo cut this year is priced as nearly impossible.",
"The Kalshi ladder on the post-October upper bound sits near 4.00%, coherent with a market that sees no large cuts coming.",
"Resolves via the Federal Reserve's official rate decisions through year-end 2026."
],
"atomic_claims": [
{
"type": "news_event",
"field_provenance": {
"story": {
"tier": "mediated",
"method": "exa_search",
"source": "Admirals Expert Verified",
"source_url": "https://admiralmarkets.com/analytics/traders-blog/fomc-minutes-october-2026",
"retrieved_at": "2026-10-07T07:47:51+00:00"
}
},
"significance": {
"threshold": 5,
"threshold_unit": "rank",
"passed": true,
"reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
},
"story": "FOMC minutes from the September 15-16 meeting are due October 7, with markets watching for guidance on the pace and size of any future rate adjustments.",
"publisher": "Admirals Expert Verified",
"published_at": "2026-10-05T00:00:00.000Z",
"source_url": "https://admiralmarkets.com/analytics/traders-blog/fomc-minutes-october-2026"
},
{
"type": "pm_response",
"field_provenance": {
"notes": {
"tier": "editorial",
"method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
}
},
"notes": "Kalshi contract at 3%; pricing is consistent across the rate complex with no internal contradictions."
}
],
"evaluation": {
"judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
"judge_verdict": "auto_published",
"judge_confidence": null,
"prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
},
"citations": {
"internal": {
"cm_event": "/events/kxlargecut-26/",
"related": []
},
"external": {
"venue_a": "https://kalshi.com/markets/KXLARGECUT-26",
"venue_b": null,
"benchmark": null
}
},
"sources": [
{
"label": "Admirals Expert Verified: FOMC Minutes October 2026: Release Time and Preview",
"url": "https://admiralmarkets.com/analytics/traders-blog/fomc-minutes-october-2026",
"published_at": "2026-10-05T00:00:00.000Z",
"retrieved_at": "2026-10-07T07:47:51+00:00"
}
],
"field_provenance": {
"pm_data": "kalshi_api",
"news_context": "exa_search",
"editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
}
}
PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1