Rate cut above 25 basis points stays a long shot this year

Name: Rate cut above 25 basis points stays a long shot this year
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-10-08T00:00:00.000Z
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Kalshi 3%

record: CMSIG2026100802 | category: momentum-repricing | target: CM-EVT-RWRZ1R3SD6 | published: 2026-10-08

4-bullet brief | narrative

Kalshi prices only 3% on the Federal Reserve cutting by more than 25 basis points at any point in 2026.
Fed minutes flagged inflation risks from energy, AI investment, and other shocks, consistent with the near-zero probability of an outsized cut.
The Kalshi ladder for the Fed funds upper bound (CM-EVT-MR57HVWJT3) clusters at 4.0-4.25%, reinforcing that markets see the next move as a hike, not a cut.
Resolves via official Federal Reserve policy announcement; any cut exceeding 25bps at a scheduled FOMC meeting would settle this YES.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] news_event

significance

surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market

story: Fed minutes released October 7 showed officials feared inflation pressures could spread, signaling more tightening ahead rather than easing.exa_search → James Picerno · as_of 2026-10-09T07:48:13+00:00
publisher: James Picerno
published_at: 2026-10-08T00:00:00.000Z
source_url: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4952772-fed-minutes-signal-more-tightening-amid-mixed-inflation-data

[02] pm_response

interp: Kalshi contract at 3% is firmly consistent with the hawkish minutes narrative; no outsized easing priced for 2026.llm_judge_cm_signal_v1

evaluation

News-cycle wires publish on coverage, not editorial selection — the day’s top stories matched to the prediction markets pricing them, so nothing is cherry-picked.

judge_engine: none — deterministic news-cycle scan
judge_verdict: auto_published
judge_confidence: n/a — no judge gate (deterministic publishing)
prompt_template: news_cycle_v1 github · auditable
match_method: entity_slug_match (mechanical)

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/kxlargecut-26/

external

venue_a: https://kalshi.com/markets/KXLARGECUT-26

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-cut-over-25bps-in-2026-kalshi-3-2026-10-08/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-cut-over-25bps-in-2026-kalshi-3-2026-10-08.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("fed-cut-over-25bps-in-2026-kalshi-3-2026-10-08")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026100802",
  "published_at": "2026-10-08T00:00:00.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-RWRZ1R3SD6",
  "target_event_slug": "kxlargecut-26",
  "event_question": "Will the Federal Reserve do a rate cut greater than 25 basis points this year?",
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prices only 3% on the Federal Reserve cutting by more than 25 basis points at any point in 2026.",
    "Fed minutes flagged inflation risks from energy, AI investment, and other shocks, consistent with the near-zero probability of an outsized cut.",
    "The Kalshi ladder for the Fed funds upper bound (CM-EVT-MR57HVWJT3) clusters at 4.0-4.25%, reinforcing that markets see the next move as a hike, not a cut.",
    "Resolves via official Federal Reserve policy announcement; any cut exceeding 25bps at a scheduled FOMC meeting would settle this YES."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "James Picerno",
          "source_url": "https://seekingalpha.com/article/4952772-fed-minutes-signal-more-tightening-amid-mixed-inflation-data",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-10-09T07:48:13+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Fed minutes released October 7 showed officials feared inflation pressures could spread, signaling more tightening ahead rather than easing.",
      "publisher": "James Picerno",
      "published_at": "2026-10-08T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://seekingalpha.com/article/4952772-fed-minutes-signal-more-tightening-amid-mixed-inflation-data"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi contract at 3% is firmly consistent with the hawkish minutes narrative; no outsized easing priced for 2026."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/kxlargecut-26/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": "https://kalshi.com/markets/KXLARGECUT-26",
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "James Picerno: Fed Minutes Signal More Tightening Amid Mixed Inflation Data | Seeking",
      "url": "https://seekingalpha.com/article/4952772-fed-minutes-signal-more-tightening-amid-mixed-inflation-data",
      "published_at": "2026-10-08T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-09T07:48:13+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG2026100802 published 2026-10-08T00:00:00.000Z signature sha256-e1b56c08652… ← underlying event all signals →