Odds of outsized Fed cut this year stay near zero

Name: Odds of outsized Fed cut this year stay near zero
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-08-28T00:00:00.000Z
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Kalshi 5%

record: CMSIG2026082802 | category: momentum-repricing | target: CM-EVT-RWRZ1R3SD6 | published: 2026-08-28

4-bullet brief | narrative

Kalshi puts just 5% odds on the Federal Reserve cutting rates by more than 25 basis points in 2026, resolved via Federal Reserve decisions.
Warsh's hawkish framing at Jackson Hole, avoiding any easing signal, is fully consistent with this near-zero cut probability.
The Kalshi contract pricing aligns with a market consensus that the next move is more likely a hike than a large cut.
Cross-referencing the 68% Polymarket hike probability against this 5% large-cut probability reveals a strongly asymmetric tightening bias in prediction markets.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] news_event

significance

surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market

story: Fed Chair Kevin Warsh used his Jackson Hole speech to warn on inflation and avoid committing to any forward guidance or reaction function.exa_search → Jeff Cox · as_of 2026-08-28T19:51:53+00:00
publisher: Jeff Cox
published_at: 2026-08-28T00:00:00.000Z
source_url: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/28/kevin-warsh-jackson-hole-federal-reserve-inflation.html

[02] pm_response

interp: Kalshi at 5% leaves almost no room for aggressive easing, in line with Warsh's deliberate refusal to signal accommodation.llm_judge_cm_signal_v1

evaluation

News-cycle wires publish on coverage, not editorial selection — the day’s top stories matched to the prediction markets pricing them, so nothing is cherry-picked.

judge_engine: none — deterministic news-cycle scan
judge_verdict: auto_published
judge_confidence: n/a — no judge gate (deterministic publishing)
prompt_template: news_cycle_v1 github · auditable
match_method: entity_slug_match (mechanical)

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/kxlargecut-26/

external

venue_a: https://kalshi.com/markets/KXLARGECUT-26

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-cut-over-25bps-in-2026-kalshi-5-2026-08-28/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-cut-over-25bps-in-2026-kalshi-5-2026-08-28.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("fed-cut-over-25bps-in-2026-kalshi-5-2026-08-28")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026082802",
  "published_at": "2026-08-28T00:00:00.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-RWRZ1R3SD6",
  "target_event_slug": "kxlargecut-26",
  "event_question": "Will the Federal Reserve do a rate cut greater than 25 basis points this year?",
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi puts just 5% odds on the Federal Reserve cutting rates by more than 25 basis points in 2026, resolved via Federal Reserve decisions.",
    "Warsh's hawkish framing at Jackson Hole, avoiding any easing signal, is fully consistent with this near-zero cut probability.",
    "The Kalshi contract pricing aligns with a market consensus that the next move is more likely a hike than a large cut.",
    "Cross-referencing the 68% Polymarket hike probability against this 5% large-cut probability reveals a strongly asymmetric tightening bias in prediction markets."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Jeff Cox",
          "source_url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/28/kevin-warsh-jackson-hole-federal-reserve-inflation.html",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-08-28T19:51:53+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Fed Chair Kevin Warsh used his Jackson Hole speech to warn on inflation and avoid committing to any forward guidance or reaction function.",
      "publisher": "Jeff Cox",
      "published_at": "2026-08-28T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/28/kevin-warsh-jackson-hole-federal-reserve-inflation.html"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi at 5% leaves almost no room for aggressive easing, in line with Warsh's deliberate refusal to signal accommodation."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/kxlargecut-26/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": "https://kalshi.com/markets/KXLARGECUT-26",
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Jeff Cox: kevin-warsh-jackson-hole-federal-reserve-inflation",
      "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/28/kevin-warsh-jackson-hole-federal-reserve-inflation.html",
      "published_at": "2026-08-28T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-08-28T19:51:53+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG2026082802 published 2026-08-28T00:00:00.000Z signature sha256-90829830192… ← underlying event all signals →