Rate above 3.75 percent nears full pricing as anchor below that level

Name: Rate above 3.75 percent nears full pricing as anchor below that level
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-07-10T10:55:15.594Z
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Kalshi ladder

record: CMSIG2026071006 | category: momentum-repricing | target: CM-EVT-PHWX2H6DM5 | published: 2026-07-10

4-bullet brief | narrative

Kalshi ladder shows 99% above 3.50% but only 21% above 3.75%, anchoring the consensus rate view firmly in the 3.50-3.75% range.
The Fed report's 'stepped-up inflation' language is hawkish, but the market is not moving the upper bound probability above 3.75% into base-case territory.
The 56% Kalshi reading on CM-EVT-P1KKDFWZ42 for the Fed raising rates at all in the 2026-2028 series is consistent with a market that prices hikes as possible but not certain.
Resolves via Federal Reserve official decision; 99% certainty at 3.50% reflects a floor well-established before this report's release.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] news_event

significance

surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market

story: The Federal Reserve's July 2026 Monetary Policy Report to Congress cited stepped-up inflation from tariffs, the Iran war, and AI buildout.exa_search → federalreserve.gov · as_of 2026-07-13T10:56:18+00:00
publisher: federalreserve.gov
published_at: 2026-07-10T10:55:15.594Z
source_url: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/20260710_mprfullreport.pdf

[02] pm_response

interp: Kalshi's ladder is consistent with markets absorbing hawkish Fed language without repricing a breakout above 3.75%, keeping the consensus pinned at the 3.50-3.75% band.llm_judge_cm_signal_v1

evaluation

News-cycle wires publish on coverage, not editorial selection — the day’s top stories matched to the prediction markets pricing them, so nothing is cherry-picked.

judge_engine: none — deterministic news-cycle scan
judge_verdict: auto_published
judge_confidence: n/a — no judge gate (deterministic publishing)
prompt_template: news_cycle_v1 github · auditable
match_method: entity_slug_match (mechanical)

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/kxfed-26jul/

external

venue_a: https://kalshi.com/markets/KXFED-26JUL-T3.75

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-funds-above-3-75-post-decision-kalshi-21-2026-07-10/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-funds-above-3-75-post-decision-kalshi-21-2026-07-10.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("fed-funds-above-3-75-post-decision-kalshi-21-2026-07-10")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026071006",
  "published_at": "2026-07-10T10:55:15.594Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-PHWX2H6DM5",
  "target_event_slug": "kxfed-26jul",
  "event_question": "Federal funds rate upper bound post-decision",
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi ladder shows 99% above 3.50% but only 21% above 3.75%, anchoring the consensus rate view firmly in the 3.50-3.75% range.",
    "The Fed report's 'stepped-up inflation' language is hawkish, but the market is not moving the upper bound probability above 3.75% into base-case territory.",
    "The 56% Kalshi reading on CM-EVT-P1KKDFWZ42 for the Fed raising rates at all in the 2026-2028 series is consistent with a market that prices hikes as possible but not certain.",
    "Resolves via Federal Reserve official decision; 99% certainty at 3.50% reflects a floor well-established before this report's release."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "federalreserve.gov",
          "source_url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/20260710_mprfullreport.pdf",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-07-13T10:56:18+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "The Federal Reserve's July 2026 Monetary Policy Report to Congress cited stepped-up inflation from tariffs, the Iran war, and AI buildout.",
      "publisher": "federalreserve.gov",
      "published_at": "2026-07-10T10:55:15.594Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/20260710_mprfullreport.pdf"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi's ladder is consistent with markets absorbing hawkish Fed language without repricing a breakout above 3.75%, keeping the consensus pinned at the 3.50-3.75% band."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/kxfed-26jul/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": "https://kalshi.com/markets/KXFED-26JUL-T3.75",
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "federalreserve.gov: Monetary Policy Report, July 2026",
      "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/20260710_mprfullreport.pdf",
      "published_at": "2026-07-10T10:55:15.594Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-13T10:56:18+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG2026071006 published 2026-07-10T10:55:15.594Z signature sha256-0202efb93aa… ← underlying event all signals →