Fed funds upper bound anchors at 3.75 to 4 percent post-hike talk

{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026062602",
  "published_at": "2026-06-26T00:00:00.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-4ZQLQPNH91",
  "target_event_slug": "kxfed-26sep",
  "event_question": "Fed funds upper bound after next FOMC meeting",
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi ladder pins the Fed funds upper bound in the 3.75-4.0% range: 56% chance above 3.75%, only 8% above 4.0%.",
    "Sticky 4.1% PCE aligns with the market pricing a July pause but leaving the door open for a September hike.",
    "Companion Kalshi ladder for a later meeting (CM-EVT-PHWX2H6DM5) shows upper bound implied near 3.50-3.75%, suggesting the market sees rate pressure as temporary, not a sustained hiking cycle.",
    "Resolves via the Federal Reserve's official post-meeting rate announcement."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Anupam Nagar",
          "source_url": "https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/us-stocks/news/us-stock-market-sticky-inflation-keeps-september-fed-rate-hike-on-table-despite-july-pause-expectations/articleshow/132006583.cms",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-06-27T01:35:43+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Sticky PCE inflation at a 3-year high keeps a potential September Fed rate hike in market discussion despite a near-certain July pause.",
      "publisher": "Anupam Nagar",
      "published_at": "2026-06-26T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/us-stocks/news/us-stock-market-sticky-inflation-keeps-september-fed-rate-hike-on-table-despite-july-pause-expectations/articleshow/132006583.cms"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi's ladder distribution shows consensus clustered just below 4.0%, with the PCE print consistent with but not accelerating the hike narrative."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
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  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/kxfed-26sep/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": "https://kalshi.com/markets/KXFED-26SEP-T4.00",
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Anupam Nagar: US Stock Market: Sticky inflation keeps September Fed rate hike on tab",
      "url": "https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/us-stocks/news/us-stock-market-sticky-inflation-keeps-september-fed-rate-hike-on-table-despite-july-pause-expectations/articleshow/132006583.cms",
      "published_at": "2026-06-26T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-06-27T01:35:43+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
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    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
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