Fed funds upper bound stays priced near 4.0 to 4.25 percent

{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026101202",
  "published_at": "2026-10-12T00:00:00.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-MR57HVWJT3",
  "target_event_slug": "kxfed-26dec",
  "event_question": "Fed funds upper bound after next meeting",
  "bullets": [
    "The Kalshi ladder prices the Fed funds upper bound in the 4.0-4.25% range: 81% above 4.0% but only 19% above 4.25%, implying one more hike is consensus, two is a tail.",
    "Bank of America's two-hike call for October and December sits at the outer edge of what the Kalshi distribution reflects: 6% above 4.5% and 2% above 4.75%.",
    "The September payroll miss of 29,000 against a 90,000 estimate, reported separately, is the main counterweight to the BofA hawkish view.",
    "A companion Kalshi contract on the Fed making a cut greater than 25 basis points sits at 2%, consistent with the hike-bias framing in the ladder distribution."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Vikram G",
          "source_url": "https://www.newkerala.com/news/a/strong-us-growth-sticky-inflation-may-prompt-two-278.htm",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-10-12T07:49:04+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Bank of America expects two more Fed rate hikes in 2026, in October and December, citing strong US growth.",
      "publisher": "Vikram G",
      "published_at": "2026-10-12T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.newkerala.com/news/a/strong-us-growth-sticky-inflation-may-prompt-two-278.htm"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "The Kalshi ladder on the Fed funds upper bound shows the market is pricing one hike as the base case, treating the BofA two-hike forecast as a meaningful but low-probability outcome."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/kxfed-26dec/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": "https://kalshi.com/markets/KXFED-26DEC-T4.25",
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Vikram G: BofA Sees Two More Fed Rate Hikes in 2026 on Strong US Growth",
      "url": "https://www.newkerala.com/news/a/strong-us-growth-sticky-inflation-may-prompt-two-278.htm",
      "published_at": "2026-10-12T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-12T07:49:04+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}