Fed funds upper bound seen holding at 3.50-3.75%

{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026081401",
  "published_at": "2026-08-14T00:00:00.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-4ZQLQPNH91",
  "target_event_slug": "kxfed-26sep",
  "event_question": "Fed funds upper bound, next meeting",
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi ladder prices the Fed funds upper bound in the 3.50-3.75% range, with 98% above 3.50% but only 25% above 3.75%.",
    "Retail sales dropped 0.6% in July and consumer confidence fell, consistent with a market that prices near-zero chance of a hike.",
    "The sharp cliff from 98% to 25% between 3.50% and 3.75% signals strong consensus the upper bound stays at 3.75% or below.",
    "Companion Kalshi contract on an emergency Fed meeting in 2026 sits at just 5%, ruling out an out-of-cycle move as the catalyst."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "americanbanker.com",
          "source_url": "https://www.americanbanker.com/news/markets-eye-fed-hold-after-retail-sales-consumer-confidence-fall",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-08-17T08:37:49+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Weak retail sales and falling consumer confidence are pushing markets to bet the Fed holds rates steady at its next meeting.",
      "publisher": "americanbanker.com",
      "published_at": "2026-08-14T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.americanbanker.com/news/markets-eye-fed-hold-after-retail-sales-consumer-confidence-fall"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi ladder resolves via the Federal Reserve's post-meeting announcement; the 3.50-3.75% implied range reflects the dominant hold scenario."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/kxfed-26sep/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": "https://kalshi.com/markets/KXFED-26SEP-T3.75",
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "americanbanker.com: Markets eye Fed hold after retail sales, consumer confidence fall | Am",
      "url": "https://www.americanbanker.com/news/markets-eye-fed-hold-after-retail-sales-consumer-confidence-fall",
      "published_at": "2026-08-14T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-08-17T08:37:49+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}