Fed funds upper bound seen near 3.75%-4.0%

{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026080403",
  "published_at": "2026-08-04T00:00:00.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-4ZQLQPNH91",
  "target_event_slug": "kxfed-26sep",
  "event_question": "Federal funds rate upper bound after next Fed decision",
  "bullets": [
    "Prediction market ladder prices the Fed funds upper bound near 3.75%-4.0%, with 52% above 3.75% but only 2% above 4.0%.",
    "Manufacturing revival and construction momentum described in the news suggest the economy is absorbing current rates, consistent with the ladder's pricing of modest further easing rather than aggressive cuts.",
    "Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid's call for tighter policy stands in tension with the ladder implying the upper bound sits well below 4.0%.",
    "A Kalshi contract (CM-EVT-RWRZ1R3SD6) puts only 5% odds on a cut greater than 25 basis points this year, reinforcing the ladder's read of a cautious, incremental Fed path."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Courtenay Brown",
          "source_url": "https://www.axios.com/2026/08/04/manufacturing-construction-labor-rates",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-08-07T08:53:43+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Rate-sensitive sectors including manufacturing and construction are gaining momentum as the economy adjusts to the Fed's prior tightening campaign.",
      "publisher": "Courtenay Brown",
      "published_at": "2026-08-04T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.axios.com/2026/08/04/manufacturing-construction-labor-rates"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Ladder pricing from prediction market strikes; Kalshi contract on outsized cuts resolves via Federal Reserve announcement."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/kxfed-26sep/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": "https://kalshi.com/markets/KXFED-26SEP-T4.00",
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Courtenay Brown: More manufacturers are increasing employment, ISM survey finds",
      "url": "https://www.axios.com/2026/08/04/manufacturing-construction-labor-rates",
      "published_at": "2026-08-04T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-08-07T08:53:43+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}