Longer-horizon rate path nears full pricing at 3.5 percent

Name: Longer-horizon rate path nears full pricing at 3.5 percent
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-07-16T12:43:40.000Z
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Kalshi ladder

record: CMSIG2026071605 | category: momentum-repricing | target: CM-EVT-PHWX2H6DM5 | published: 2026-07-16

4-bullet brief | narrative

Kalshi's longer-horizon ladder shows 98% above 3.50% but only 4% above 3.75%, tightly pinning the expected upper bound at 3.50-3.75%.
Soft headline retail sales driven by energy price drag did not shift this distribution; the market treats underlying consumer spending as supportive of a gradual, limited easing path.
The near-certainty above 3.50% combined with the cliff at 3.75% reflects consensus that the Fed will cut but stop well above prior cycle lows.
Resolves via Federal Reserve official rate decision at the relevant FOMC meeting date specified in the contract.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] news_event

significance

surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market

story: June US retail sales rose only slightly as lower gasoline prices weighed on receipts, though underlying consumer momentum remained, prompting economists to upgrade second-quarter GDP estimates.exa_search → AOL · as_of 2026-07-17T09:53:11+00:00
publisher: AOL
published_at: 2026-07-16T12:43:40.000Z
source_url: https://www.aol.com/articles/us-retail-sales-rise-marginally-124340000.html

[02] pm_response

interp: Kalshi ladder contract; the 98%/4% split across the 3.50/3.75 strikes is the dominant signal in this distribution.llm_judge_cm_signal_v1

evaluation

News-cycle wires publish on coverage, not editorial selection — the day’s top stories matched to the prediction markets pricing them, so nothing is cherry-picked.

judge_engine: none — deterministic news-cycle scan
judge_verdict: auto_published
judge_confidence: n/a — no judge gate (deterministic publishing)
prompt_template: news_cycle_v1 github · auditable
match_method: entity_slug_match (mechanical)

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/kxfed-26jul/

external

venue_a: https://kalshi.com/markets/KXFED-26JUL-T3.75

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-funds-upper-bound-longer-term-kalshi-3-50-3-75-2026-07-16/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-funds-upper-bound-longer-term-kalshi-3-50-3-75-2026-07-16.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("fed-funds-upper-bound-longer-term-kalshi-3-50-3-75-2026-07-16")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026071605",
  "published_at": "2026-07-16T12:43:40.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-PHWX2H6DM5",
  "target_event_slug": "kxfed-26jul",
  "event_question": "Longer-term Fed funds upper bound",
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi's longer-horizon ladder shows 98% above 3.50% but only 4% above 3.75%, tightly pinning the expected upper bound at 3.50-3.75%.",
    "Soft headline retail sales driven by energy price drag did not shift this distribution; the market treats underlying consumer spending as supportive of a gradual, limited easing path.",
    "The near-certainty above 3.50% combined with the cliff at 3.75% reflects consensus that the Fed will cut but stop well above prior cycle lows.",
    "Resolves via Federal Reserve official rate decision at the relevant FOMC meeting date specified in the contract."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "AOL",
          "source_url": "https://www.aol.com/articles/us-retail-sales-rise-marginally-124340000.html",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-07-17T09:53:11+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "June US retail sales rose only slightly as lower gasoline prices weighed on receipts, though underlying consumer momentum remained, prompting economists to upgrade second-quarter GDP estimates.",
      "publisher": "AOL",
      "published_at": "2026-07-16T12:43:40.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.aol.com/articles/us-retail-sales-rise-marginally-124340000.html"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi ladder contract; the 98%/4% split across the 3.50/3.75 strikes is the dominant signal in this distribution."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/kxfed-26jul/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": "https://kalshi.com/markets/KXFED-26JUL-T3.75",
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "AOL: Lower gasoline prices restrain US retail sales, underlying momentum re",
      "url": "https://www.aol.com/articles/us-retail-sales-rise-marginally-124340000.html",
      "published_at": "2026-07-16T12:43:40.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-17T09:53:11+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG2026071605 published 2026-07-16T12:43:40.000Z signature sha256-8e6dd08f4f8… ← underlying event all signals →