Fed funds upper bound seen near 4 percent after next meeting

Name: Fed funds upper bound seen near 4 percent after next meeting
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-10-12T00:00:00.000Z
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Kalshi ladder

record: CMSIG2026101203 | category: momentum-repricing | target: CM-EVT-MR57HVWJT3 | published: 2026-10-12

4-bullet brief | narrative

Kalshi ladder prices the Fed funds upper bound in the 4.00-4.25% range: 83% above 4.00%, but only 15% above 4.25%.
FOMC minutes signaled a hike lean, yet the market clusters near 4.00-4.25% rather than pricing a move well above 4.25%, suggesting the market is not fully buying the hawkish posture.
A softer September jobs report, just 29,000 payrolls added versus 90,000 expected, is pulling against the hawkish minutes, keeping the implied endpoint near current levels.
A companion Kalshi ladder (CM-EVT-6BS28TS762) pins an earlier meeting outcome below 4.00% with 99% confidence, consistent with a sequential hike path rather than a jump.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] news_event

significance

surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market

story: FOMC minutes reaffirmed a rate hike bias while strong foreign demand at a 10-year Treasury auction pushed yields down 10 basis points ahead of CPI data.exa_search → chase-dream.cn · as_of 2026-10-12T17:17:25+00:00
publisher: chase-dream.cn
published_at: 2026-10-12T00:00:00.000Z
source_url: https://chase-dream.cn/en/digests/fed_macro-20261012-am/

[02] pm_response

interp: Kalshi ladder on the Fed funds upper bound; the 83%/15% split at 4.00%/4.25% shows the market treating a move past 4.25% as a tail risk despite hawkish Fed minutes.llm_judge_cm_signal_v1

evaluation

News-cycle wires publish on coverage, not editorial selection — the day’s top stories matched to the prediction markets pricing them, so nothing is cherry-picked.

judge_engine: none — deterministic news-cycle scan
judge_verdict: auto_published
judge_confidence: n/a — no judge gate (deterministic publishing)
prompt_template: news_cycle_v1 github · auditable
match_method: entity_slug_match (mechanical)

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/kxfed-26dec/

external

venue_a: https://kalshi.com/markets/KXFED-26DEC-T4.25

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-funds-upper-bound-post-meeting-kalshi-4-0-4-25-2026-10-12/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-funds-upper-bound-post-meeting-kalshi-4-0-4-25-2026-10-12.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("fed-funds-upper-bound-post-meeting-kalshi-4-0-4-25-2026-10-12")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026101203",
  "published_at": "2026-10-12T00:00:00.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-MR57HVWJT3",
  "target_event_slug": "kxfed-26dec",
  "event_question": "Federal funds upper bound after next FOMC meeting",
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi ladder prices the Fed funds upper bound in the 4.00-4.25% range: 83% above 4.00%, but only 15% above 4.25%.",
    "FOMC minutes signaled a hike lean, yet the market clusters near 4.00-4.25% rather than pricing a move well above 4.25%, suggesting the market is not fully buying the hawkish posture.",
    "A softer September jobs report, just 29,000 payrolls added versus 90,000 expected, is pulling against the hawkish minutes, keeping the implied endpoint near current levels.",
    "A companion Kalshi ladder (CM-EVT-6BS28TS762) pins an earlier meeting outcome below 4.00% with 99% confidence, consistent with a sequential hike path rather than a jump."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "chase-dream.cn",
          "source_url": "https://chase-dream.cn/en/digests/fed_macro-20261012-am/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-10-12T17:17:25+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "FOMC minutes reaffirmed a rate hike bias while strong foreign demand at a 10-year Treasury auction pushed yields down 10 basis points ahead of CPI data.",
      "publisher": "chase-dream.cn",
      "published_at": "2026-10-12T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://chase-dream.cn/en/digests/fed_macro-20261012-am/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi ladder on the Fed funds upper bound; the 83%/15% split at 4.00%/4.25% shows the market treating a move past 4.25% as a tail risk despite hawkish Fed minutes."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/kxfed-26dec/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": "https://kalshi.com/markets/KXFED-26DEC-T4.25",
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "chase-dream.cn: Fed & Macro Overnight Brief October 12, 2026 | Fed Minutes Re-Affirm a",
      "url": "https://chase-dream.cn/en/digests/fed_macro-20261012-am/",
      "published_at": "2026-10-12T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-12T17:17:25+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG2026101203 published 2026-10-12T00:00:00.000Z signature sha256-28ae7226a18… ← underlying event all signals →