Fed funds upper bound seen near 4.0 to 4.25 percent after September

Name: Fed funds upper bound seen near 4.0 to 4.25 percent after September
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-10-14T00:00:00.000Z
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Kalshi ladder

record: CMSIG2026101407 | category: momentum-repricing | target: CM-EVT-MR57HVWJT3 | published: 2026-10-14

4-bullet brief | narrative

The Kalshi ladder implies a September 2026 Fed funds upper bound in the 4.0-4.25% range: 93% above 4.0% but only 33% above 4.25%, with trading volume up 9,607x day-over-day.
A 29,000 September payroll print, far below typical expectations, is a dovish data shock that markets may be absorbing via the sharp drop in probability above 4.25%.
The extreme volume surge (9,607x day-over-day) signals this contract is drawing intense fresh attention following the weak jobs report, even if the implied level has not visibly shifted in the data provided.
The Fed's concurrent 25bp hike (see Story 2) and Williams' 2027 pause signal frame the 4.0-4.25% zone as a likely terminal range, consistent with this ladder distribution.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] news_event

significance

surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market

story: The US economy added only 29,000 jobs in September, a sharp hiring slowdown that adds uncertainty to the Federal Reserve's rate path ahead of upcoming meetings.exa_search → cnnbc.com · as_of 2026-10-14T13:17:09+00:00
publisher: cnnbc.com
published_at: 2026-10-14T00:00:00.000Z
source_url: https://cnnbc.com/us-economy-adds-just-29-000-jobs-in-september

[02] pm_response

interp: Kalshi ladder shows massive volume spike alongside the weak jobs print, the 4.0-4.25% implied range is the market's current best estimate of where the cycle peaks.llm_judge_cm_signal_v1

evaluation

News-cycle wires publish on coverage, not editorial selection — the day’s top stories matched to the prediction markets pricing them, so nothing is cherry-picked.

judge_engine: none — deterministic news-cycle scan
judge_verdict: auto_published
judge_confidence: n/a — no judge gate (deterministic publishing)
prompt_template: news_cycle_v1 github · auditable
match_method: entity_slug_match (mechanical)

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/kxfed-26dec/

external

venue_a: https://kalshi.com/markets/KXFED-26DEC-T4.25

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-funds-upper-bound-post-sep-kalshi-implied-4-0-4-25-2026-10-14/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-funds-upper-bound-post-sep-kalshi-implied-4-0-4-25-2026-10-14.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("fed-funds-upper-bound-post-sep-kalshi-implied-4-0-4-25-2026-10-14")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026101407",
  "published_at": "2026-10-14T00:00:00.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-MR57HVWJT3",
  "target_event_slug": "kxfed-26dec",
  "event_question": "Federal funds upper bound after September 2026 meeting",
  "bullets": [
    "The Kalshi ladder implies a September 2026 Fed funds upper bound in the 4.0-4.25% range: 93% above 4.0% but only 33% above 4.25%, with trading volume up 9,607x day-over-day.",
    "A 29,000 September payroll print, far below typical expectations, is a dovish data shock that markets may be absorbing via the sharp drop in probability above 4.25%.",
    "The extreme volume surge (9,607x day-over-day) signals this contract is drawing intense fresh attention following the weak jobs report, even if the implied level has not visibly shifted in the data provided.",
    "The Fed's concurrent 25bp hike (see Story 2) and Williams' 2027 pause signal frame the 4.0-4.25% zone as a likely terminal range, consistent with this ladder distribution."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "cnnbc.com",
          "source_url": "https://cnnbc.com/us-economy-adds-just-29-000-jobs-in-september",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-10-14T13:17:09+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "The US economy added only 29,000 jobs in September, a sharp hiring slowdown that adds uncertainty to the Federal Reserve's rate path ahead of upcoming meetings.",
      "publisher": "cnnbc.com",
      "published_at": "2026-10-14T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://cnnbc.com/us-economy-adds-just-29-000-jobs-in-september"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi ladder shows massive volume spike alongside the weak jobs print, the 4.0-4.25% implied range is the market's current best estimate of where the cycle peaks."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/kxfed-26dec/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": "https://kalshi.com/markets/KXFED-26DEC-T4.25",
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "cnnbc.com: US Economy Adds Just 29,000 Jobs in September - CNNBC",
      "url": "https://cnnbc.com/us-economy-adds-just-29-000-jobs-in-september",
      "published_at": "2026-10-14T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-14T13:17:09+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG2026101407 published 2026-10-14T00:00:00.000Z signature sha256-a122d5a1c5c… ← underlying event all signals →