Fed funds upper bound seen landing at 3.75 to 4 percent

{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026093001",
  "published_at": "2026-09-30T00:00:00.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-6BS28TS762",
  "target_event_slug": "kxfed-26oct",
  "event_question": "Federal funds rate upper bound (next hike cycle)",
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi ladder pins the fed funds upper bound in the 3.75-4.0% range: 98% above 3.75% but only 34% above 4.0%, implying one more hike is the consensus.",
    "New York Fed President John Williams called for one more late-2026 hike; the distribution is consistent with that single-hike view, not a more aggressive path.",
    "Volume surged 53x day over day on this ladder, signaling sharply rising market attention following Williams' public remarks.",
    "Beyond 4.0%, the ladder collapses to just 2% probability, suggesting markets firmly reject a scenario of multiple additional hikes from here."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "straitstimes.com",
          "source_url": "https://www.straitstimes.com/business/economy/us-federal-reserves-williams-sees-one-more-interest-rate-hike-in-late-2026",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-09-30T14:32:59+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "New York Fed President John Williams signaled one more rate hike in late 2026, saying there is no urgency to act after the most recent increase.",
      "publisher": "straitstimes.com",
      "published_at": "2026-09-30T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.straitstimes.com/business/economy/us-federal-reserves-williams-sees-one-more-interest-rate-hike-in-late-2026"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi ladder resolves against the official federal funds rate target; the sharp break above 4.0% makes the single-hike read the dominant pricing outcome."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/kxfed-26oct/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": "https://kalshi.com/markets/KXFED-26OCT-T4.00",
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "straitstimes.com: US Federal Reserve’s Williams sees one more interest rate hike in late",
      "url": "https://www.straitstimes.com/business/economy/us-federal-reserves-williams-sees-one-more-interest-rate-hike-in-late-2026",
      "published_at": "2026-09-30T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-30T14:32:59+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}