Near-term Fed cut odds stay heavily favored below 3.75%

{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026081002",
  "published_at": "2026-08-10T00:00:00.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-4ZQLQPNH91",
  "target_event_slug": "kxfed-26sep",
  "event_question": "Fed funds upper bound (near-term meeting)",
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi ladder pins the near-term Fed funds upper bound in the 3.50-3.75% range, with 98% above 3.50% but only 42% above 3.75%.",
    "The 23,000 July payroll loss is consistent with the market's strong pricing for cuts; the 3.75% rung at 42% shows real uncertainty about how far and fast cuts go.",
    "The longer-horizon ladder (CM-EVT-MR57HVWJT3) implies the upper bound drifts higher to the 3.75-4.0% zone over subsequent meetings, suggesting a step-down cut path.",
    "Resolves via the Fed's official post-meeting announcement for the relevant decision date; a surprise hold would collapse the above-3.75% pricing."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "111things.com",
          "source_url": "https://111things.com/national/weak-july-jobs-report-complicates-the-federal-reserves-path-on-interest-rates/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-08-12T09:07:43+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "July payrolls fell 23,000, a sharp deterioration that complicates the Federal Reserve's rate path and fuels rate-cut speculation.",
      "publisher": "111things.com",
      "published_at": "2026-08-10T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://111things.com/national/weak-july-jobs-report-complicates-the-federal-reserves-path-on-interest-rates/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi is the sole priced venue on this ladder; the near-term distribution shows sharply tighter consensus than the longer-dated equivalent."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/kxfed-26sep/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": "https://kalshi.com/markets/KXFED-26SEP-T3.75",
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "111things.com: Weak July Jobs Report Complicates the Federal Reserve’s Path on Intere",
      "url": "https://111things.com/national/weak-july-jobs-report-complicates-the-federal-reserves-path-on-interest-rates/",
      "published_at": "2026-08-10T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-08-12T09:07:43+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}