Rate hike odds stay short of one-in-two despite historic jobs data

Name: Rate hike odds stay short of one-in-two despite historic jobs data
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-07-24T00:00:00.000Z
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Kalshi ladder

record: CMSIG2026072403 | category: momentum-repricing | target: CM-EVT-4ZQLQPNH91 | published: 2026-07-24

4-bullet brief | narrative

Kalshi ladder prices only 12% probability the Fed funds upper bound exceeds 4.0% after the July meeting.
Headlines claim hike odds are past one-in-three, but the Kalshi distribution puts a hike above 4.0% at just 12%, materially below that framing.
Volume on this Kalshi ladder rose 396x day-over-day, confirming the jobs print is drawing heavy fresh attention even as outright hike pricing remains a minority view.
The 3.75% strike at 65% suggests markets see the most likely outcome as a hold at current levels, not a hike.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] news_event

significance

surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market

story: Jobless claims hitting a 57-year low pushed headlines declaring Fed rate-hike odds past one-in-three, framing historically strong labor data as an inflation risk.exa_search → Scott McCain Published: Jul 24 2026, 7:40 AM EDT · as_of 2026-07-25T09:42:27+00:00
publisher: Scott McCain Published: Jul 24 2026, 7:40 AM EDT
published_at: 2026-07-24T00:00:00.000Z
source_url: https://www.techtimes.com/articles/321475/20260724/jobless-claims-fall-57-year-low-pushing-fed-rate-hike-odds-past-one-three.htm

[02] pm_response

interp: Kalshi ladder, with a massive volume spike, shows the market is fading the one-in-three hike narrative: above-4.0% probability sits at just 12%.llm_judge_cm_signal_v1

evaluation

News-cycle wires publish on coverage, not editorial selection — the day’s top stories matched to the prediction markets pricing them, so nothing is cherry-picked.

judge_engine: none — deterministic news-cycle scan
judge_verdict: auto_published
judge_confidence: n/a — no judge gate (deterministic publishing)
prompt_template: news_cycle_v1 github · auditable
match_method: entity_slug_match (mechanical)

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/kxfed-26sep/

external

venue_a: https://kalshi.com/markets/KXFED-26SEP-T4.00

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-hike-above-4-0-after-july-kalshi-12-2026-07-24/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-hike-above-4-0-after-july-kalshi-12-2026-07-24.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("fed-hike-above-4-0-after-july-kalshi-12-2026-07-24")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026072403",
  "published_at": "2026-07-24T00:00:00.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-4ZQLQPNH91",
  "target_event_slug": "kxfed-26sep",
  "event_question": "July 2026 Fed funds upper bound",
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi ladder prices only 12% probability the Fed funds upper bound exceeds 4.0% after the July meeting.",
    "Headlines claim hike odds are past one-in-three, but the Kalshi distribution puts a hike above 4.0% at just 12%, materially below that framing.",
    "Volume on this Kalshi ladder rose 396x day-over-day, confirming the jobs print is drawing heavy fresh attention even as outright hike pricing remains a minority view.",
    "The 3.75% strike at 65% suggests markets see the most likely outcome as a hold at current levels, not a hike."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Scott McCain  \n\nPublished: Jul 24 2026, 7:40 AM EDT",
          "source_url": "https://www.techtimes.com/articles/321475/20260724/jobless-claims-fall-57-year-low-pushing-fed-rate-hike-odds-past-one-three.htm",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-07-25T09:42:27+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Jobless claims hitting a 57-year low pushed headlines declaring Fed rate-hike odds past one-in-three, framing historically strong labor data as an inflation risk.",
      "publisher": "Scott McCain  \n\nPublished: Jul 24 2026, 7:40 AM EDT",
      "published_at": "2026-07-24T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.techtimes.com/articles/321475/20260724/jobless-claims-fall-57-year-low-pushing-fed-rate-hike-odds-past-one-three.htm"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi ladder, with a massive volume spike, shows the market is fading the one-in-three hike narrative: above-4.0% probability sits at just 12%."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/kxfed-26sep/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": "https://kalshi.com/markets/KXFED-26SEP-T4.00",
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Scott McCain  \n\nPublished: Jul 24 2026, 7:40 AM EDT: Jobless Claims Fall to 57-Year Low, Pushing Fed Rate-Hike Odds Past On",
      "url": "https://www.techtimes.com/articles/321475/20260724/jobless-claims-fall-57-year-low-pushing-fed-rate-hike-odds-past-one-three.htm",
      "published_at": "2026-07-24T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-25T09:42:27+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG2026072403 published 2026-07-24T00:00:00.000Z signature sha256-c8767d6ee23… ← underlying event all signals →