Fed hike in 2026 builds toward 75% on strong jobs data

{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026090304",
  "published_at": "2026-09-03T00:00:00.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-87QV1G78C4",
  "target_event_slug": "fed-rate-hike-in-2026",
  "event_question": "Will the Federal Reserve raise its benchmark interest rate in 2026?",
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices 71% on the Fed raising its benchmark rate at some point in 2026, resolving via UMA oracle.",
    "Waller's pre-jobs-report hedging is at mild odds with the 71% market reading, suggesting prediction markets are pricing the data more than the rhetoric.",
    "Rate-level ladder (CM-EVT-4ZQLQPNH91) puts only 2% on the fed funds upper bound exceeding 4.0%, implying markets expect a hike but a shallow one.",
    "Kalshi's multi-deadline series (CM-EVT-P1KKDFWZ42) is at 74%, nearly matching Polymarket's 71%, a tight cross-venue alignment with no meaningful gap to exploit."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "CHRISTOPHER RUGABER Associated Press Associated Press",
          "source_url": "https://www.local10.com/business/2026/09/03/will-federal-reserve-hike-rates-later-this-month-waller-muddies-the-outlook/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-09-06T11:54:11+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "Fed Governor Christopher Waller signaled ambiguity on a September rate hike even before the August payroll beat, with inflation data now the key remaining hurdle.",
      "publisher": "CHRISTOPHER RUGABER Associated Press Associated Press",
      "published_at": "2026-09-03T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.local10.com/business/2026/09/03/will-federal-reserve-hike-rates-later-this-month-waller-muddies-the-outlook/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket contract resolves via UMA oracle on any Fed rate increase in calendar 2026; cross-venue alignment with Kalshi at 74% is unusually tight."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/fed-rate-hike-in-2026/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": null,
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "CHRISTOPHER RUGABER Associated Press Associated Press: Will Federal Reserve hike rates later this month? Waller muddies the o",
      "url": "https://www.local10.com/business/2026/09/03/will-federal-reserve-hike-rates-later-this-month-waller-muddies-the-outlook/",
      "published_at": "2026-09-03T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-06T11:54:11+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}