Odds on a Fed hike in 2026 hold near 75 percent

Name: Odds on a Fed hike in 2026 hold near 75 percent
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-09-07T00:00:00.000Z
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Polymarket 72%

record: CMSIG2026090703 | category: momentum-repricing | target: CM-EVT-87QV1G78C4 | published: 2026-09-07

4-bullet brief | narrative

The Polymarket contract on the Fed raising its benchmark rate in 2026 sits at 72%, resolving via UMA oracle.
Siegel's argument that a hike is economically warranted is broadly consistent with the 72% pricing, though the contract is not at near-certainty, reflecting genuine uncertainty about the political timing he cited.
August payrolls came in at 162,000, roughly triple the 53,000 consensus, adding fuel to the hawkish case but the market has not moved to price near-certainty of a hike.
A companion Kalshi contract on the multi-deadline hike series also sits at 76%, a tight cross-venue read suggesting little divergence in the base-case probability.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] news_event

significance

surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market

story: Wharton's Professor Jeremy Siegel argued that only midterm-election political constraints are stopping the Federal Reserve from hiking rates after August's blowout 162,000 jobs report.exa_search → pbs.org · as_of 2026-09-10T12:39:52+00:00
publisher: pbs.org
published_at: 2026-09-07T00:00:00.000Z
source_url: https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/trump-keeps-heralding-an-economic-boom-but-even-a-solid-jobs-report-is-causing-problems-for-him

[02] pm_response

interp: Polymarket contract resolves via UMA oracle on whether the Fed raises its benchmark rate at any point in 2026; the 72% read is consistent across both Polymarket and Kalshi.llm_judge_cm_signal_v1

evaluation

News-cycle wires publish on coverage, not editorial selection — the day’s top stories matched to the prediction markets pricing them, so nothing is cherry-picked.

judge_engine: none — deterministic news-cycle scan
judge_verdict: auto_published
judge_confidence: n/a — no judge gate (deterministic publishing)
prompt_template: news_cycle_v1 github · auditable
match_method: entity_slug_match (mechanical)

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/fed-rate-hike-in-2026/

external

venue_a: polymarket · 0x80b3af88cb991980e8da1ce86b9794a0957f96ec98c29319dd7ba65e9744d82b

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-rate-hike-in-2026-polymarket-72-after-blowout-jobs-print-2026-09-07/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-rate-hike-in-2026-polymarket-72-after-blowout-jobs-print-2026-09-07.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("fed-rate-hike-in-2026-polymarket-72-after-blowout-jobs-print-2026-09-07")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026090703",
  "published_at": "2026-09-07T00:00:00.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-87QV1G78C4",
  "target_event_slug": "fed-rate-hike-in-2026",
  "event_question": "Will the Federal Reserve raise its benchmark interest rate in 2026?",
  "bullets": [
    "The Polymarket contract on the Fed raising its benchmark rate in 2026 sits at 72%, resolving via UMA oracle.",
    "Siegel's argument that a hike is economically warranted is broadly consistent with the 72% pricing, though the contract is not at near-certainty, reflecting genuine uncertainty about the political timing he cited.",
    "August payrolls came in at 162,000, roughly triple the 53,000 consensus, adding fuel to the hawkish case but the market has not moved to price near-certainty of a hike.",
    "A companion Kalshi contract on the multi-deadline hike series also sits at 76%, a tight cross-venue read suggesting little divergence in the base-case probability."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "pbs.org",
          "source_url": "https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/trump-keeps-heralding-an-economic-boom-but-even-a-solid-jobs-report-is-causing-problems-for-him",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-09-10T12:39:52+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "Wharton's Professor Jeremy Siegel argued that only midterm-election political constraints are stopping the Federal Reserve from hiking rates after August's blowout 162,000 jobs report.",
      "publisher": "pbs.org",
      "published_at": "2026-09-07T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/trump-keeps-heralding-an-economic-boom-but-even-a-solid-jobs-report-is-causing-problems-for-him"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket contract resolves via UMA oracle on whether the Fed raises its benchmark rate at any point in 2026; the 72% read is consistent across both Polymarket and Kalshi."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/fed-rate-hike-in-2026/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": null,
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "pbs.org: Trump keeps heralding an economic boom, but even a solid jobs report i",
      "url": "https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/trump-keeps-heralding-an-economic-boom-but-even-a-solid-jobs-report-is-causing-problems-for-him",
      "published_at": "2026-09-07T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-10T12:39:52+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG2026090703 published 2026-09-07T00:00:00.000Z signature sha256-ee07d2865d4… ← underlying event all signals →