Later-meeting Fed funds range anchors near 3.50-3.75 percent

{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026071604",
  "published_at": "2026-07-16T00:00:00.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-4ZQLQPNH91",
  "target_event_slug": "kxfed-26sep",
  "event_question": "Future Fed funds upper bound (post-June meeting)",
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi ladder prices 95% above 3.50% and only 28% above 3.75%, placing the market-implied Fed funds upper bound in the 3.50-3.75% range for this later horizon.",
    "Resilient ex-gas retail spending supports the view that the economy does not need emergency rate relief, consistent with the market holding above 3.50%.",
    "The 28% probability above 3.75% is notably wider than the near-term June contract (6% above 3.75%), suggesting some residual uncertainty about whether tightening resumes later.",
    "Comparing this ladder to the June meeting ladder (CM-EVT-PHWX2H6DM5, 6% above 3.75%) reveals a modest term-structure premium for the later horizon."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "AOL",
          "source_url": "https://www.aol.com/articles/us-retail-sales-rise-marginally-124340000.html",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-07-19T09:48:56+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Lower gasoline prices restrained June retail sales to a 0.2% gain, but ex-gas spending was resilient, prompting economists to upgrade Q2 GDP estimates.",
      "publisher": "AOL",
      "published_at": "2026-07-16T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.aol.com/articles/us-retail-sales-rise-marginally-124340000.html"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
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      },
      "notes": "Kalshi ladder contract; the distribution is broader than the June meeting contract, reflecting greater uncertainty at the longer horizon."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
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  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/kxfed-26sep/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": "https://kalshi.com/markets/KXFED-26SEP-T3.75",
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "AOL: Lower gasoline prices restrain US retail sales, underlying momentum re",
      "url": "https://www.aol.com/articles/us-retail-sales-rise-marginally-124340000.html",
      "published_at": "2026-07-16T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-19T09:48:56+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
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}