Hegseth out as Defense Secretary by December stays near 25 percent

Name: Hegseth out as Defense Secretary by December stays near 25 percent
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-09-01T03:16:49.000Z
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Polymarket 25%

record: CMSIG2026090105 | category: momentum-repricing | target: CM-EVT-JWSH7Q94S8 | published: 2026-09-01

4-bullet brief | narrative

Polymarket prices 25% on Pete Hegseth leaving as Secretary of Defense by December 31, resolving via UMA oracle.
Driscoll's resignation amid friction with Hegseth is a concrete signal of Pentagon tension, and trading volume on this contract rose 1,799% day over day.
The surge in volume indicates fresh market attention on the Hegseth exit question following the Driscoll news.
At 25%, the market does not treat Hegseth's departure as a base case, but the volume spike suggests the Driscoll exit is viewed as a meaningful new data point.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] news_event

significance

surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market

story: US Army Secretary Dan Driscoll resigned after months of friction with Pete Hegseth, as US-Iran hostilities resumed in the Hormuz region.exa_search → gulfnews.com · as_of 2026-09-01T13:00:06+00:00
publisher: gulfnews.com
published_at: 2026-09-01T03:16:49.000Z
source_url: https://gulfnews.com/world/mena/us-iran-war-hormuz-oil-flows-rebound-to-two-thirds-as-trump-warns-of-more-strikes-on-tehran-us-army-secretary-driscoll-resigns-1.500658835

[02] pm_response

interp: Polymarket at 25% with volume up roughly 19x day over day; the Driscoll resignation is drawing significant fresh trading interest in the Hegseth contract.llm_judge_cm_signal_v1

evaluation

News-cycle wires publish on coverage, not editorial selection — the day’s top stories matched to the prediction markets pricing them, so nothing is cherry-picked.

judge_engine: none — deterministic news-cycle scan
judge_verdict: auto_published
judge_confidence: n/a — no judge gate (deterministic publishing)
prompt_template: news_cycle_v1 github · auditable
match_method: entity_slug_match (mechanical)

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/pete-hegseth-out-as-secretary-of-defense-by-december-31/

external

venue_a: polymarket · 0x0fcfcfc35d71424c0693c717d2e3bc9b8992910835d124d80cd2f01498f1d3dc

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/hegseth-out-by-dec-31-polymarket-25-2026-09-01/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/hegseth-out-by-dec-31-polymarket-25-2026-09-01.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("hegseth-out-by-dec-31-polymarket-25-2026-09-01")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026090105",
  "published_at": "2026-09-01T03:16:49.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-JWSH7Q94S8",
  "target_event_slug": "pete-hegseth-out-as-secretary-of-defense-by-december-31",
  "event_question": "Will Pete Hegseth be out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?",
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices 25% on Pete Hegseth leaving as Secretary of Defense by December 31, resolving via UMA oracle.",
    "Driscoll's resignation amid friction with Hegseth is a concrete signal of Pentagon tension, and trading volume on this contract rose 1,799% day over day.",
    "The surge in volume indicates fresh market attention on the Hegseth exit question following the Driscoll news.",
    "At 25%, the market does not treat Hegseth's departure as a base case, but the volume spike suggests the Driscoll exit is viewed as a meaningful new data point."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "gulfnews.com",
          "source_url": "https://gulfnews.com/world/mena/us-iran-war-hormuz-oil-flows-rebound-to-two-thirds-as-trump-warns-of-more-strikes-on-tehran-us-army-secretary-driscoll-resigns-1.500658835",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-09-01T13:00:06+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "US Army Secretary Dan Driscoll resigned after months of friction with Pete Hegseth, as US-Iran hostilities resumed in the Hormuz region.",
      "publisher": "gulfnews.com",
      "published_at": "2026-09-01T03:16:49.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://gulfnews.com/world/mena/us-iran-war-hormuz-oil-flows-rebound-to-two-thirds-as-trump-warns-of-more-strikes-on-tehran-us-army-secretary-driscoll-resigns-1.500658835"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket at 25% with volume up roughly 19x day over day; the Driscoll resignation is drawing significant fresh trading interest in the Hegseth contract."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/pete-hegseth-out-as-secretary-of-defense-by-december-31/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": null,
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "gulfnews.com: US-Iran war: Hormuz oil flows rebound to two-thirds as Trump warns of",
      "url": "https://gulfnews.com/world/mena/us-iran-war-hormuz-oil-flows-rebound-to-two-thirds-as-trump-warns-of-more-strikes-on-tehran-us-army-secretary-driscoll-resigns-1.500658835",
      "published_at": "2026-09-01T03:16:49.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-01T13:00:06+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG2026090105 published 2026-09-01T03:16:49.000Z signature sha256-2ee42b8f8b6… ← underlying event all signals →