Strait of Hormuz reopening by year-end stays below 30 percent

Name: Strait of Hormuz reopening by year-end stays below 30 percent
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-08-31T00:00:00.000Z
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Polymarket 29%

record: CMSIG2026083104 | category: momentum-repricing | target: CM-EVT-LCPV825X09 | published: 2026-08-31

4-bullet brief | narrative

Polymarket puts only 29% on the Strait of Hormuz returning to normal traffic by December 31, resolving via UMA oracle.
Trump's vow to hit Iran hard and Tehran keeping the strait shut is consistent with the market's low-odds view on near-term reopening.
Iran's conditional ceasefire offer provides some diplomatic optionality, but the 29% price suggests markets treat it as a long shot.
No near-term Hormuz contract with a price was available for comparison, but the year-end 29% price already reflects a protracted standoff scenario.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] news_event

significance

surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market

story: Trump vowed to hit Iran hard after the first US-Iran exchange of fire in weeks, while Iran said it would return to a ceasefire if the US does.exa_search → channelnewsasia.com · as_of 2026-09-01T13:00:06+00:00
publisher: channelnewsasia.com
published_at: 2026-08-31T00:00:00.000Z
source_url: https://www.channelnewsasia.com/world/trump-vows-hit-back-hard-after-first-exchange-fire-iran-in-weeks-6352671

[02] pm_response

interp: Polymarket at 29% on full Hormuz normalization by year-end; the conditional ceasefire offer from Iran has not materially shifted the odds.llm_judge_cm_signal_v1

evaluation

News-cycle wires publish on coverage, not editorial selection — the day’s top stories matched to the prediction markets pricing them, so nothing is cherry-picked.

judge_engine: none — deterministic news-cycle scan
judge_verdict: auto_published
judge_confidence: n/a — no judge gate (deterministic publishing)
prompt_template: news_cycle_v1 github · auditable
match_method: entity_slug_match (mechanical)

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31/

external

venue_a: polymarket · 0x5c79dfde05559b79a9cb9f7c4187e4d49632dd042572ae676952f812732591cc

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/hormuz-normal-by-dec-31-polymarket-29-2026-08-31/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/hormuz-normal-by-dec-31-polymarket-29-2026-08-31.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("hormuz-normal-by-dec-31-polymarket-29-2026-08-31")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026083104",
  "published_at": "2026-08-31T00:00:00.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-LCPV825X09",
  "target_event_slug": "strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31",
  "event_question": "Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal by December 31?",
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket puts only 29% on the Strait of Hormuz returning to normal traffic by December 31, resolving via UMA oracle.",
    "Trump's vow to hit Iran hard and Tehran keeping the strait shut is consistent with the market's low-odds view on near-term reopening.",
    "Iran's conditional ceasefire offer provides some diplomatic optionality, but the 29% price suggests markets treat it as a long shot.",
    "No near-term Hormuz contract with a price was available for comparison, but the year-end 29% price already reflects a protracted standoff scenario."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "channelnewsasia.com",
          "source_url": "https://www.channelnewsasia.com/world/trump-vows-hit-back-hard-after-first-exchange-fire-iran-in-weeks-6352671",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-09-01T13:00:06+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "Trump vowed to hit Iran hard after the first US-Iran exchange of fire in weeks, while Iran said it would return to a ceasefire if the US does.",
      "publisher": "channelnewsasia.com",
      "published_at": "2026-08-31T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.channelnewsasia.com/world/trump-vows-hit-back-hard-after-first-exchange-fire-iran-in-weeks-6352671"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket at 29% on full Hormuz normalization by year-end; the conditional ceasefire offer from Iran has not materially shifted the odds."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": null,
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "channelnewsasia.com: Trump vows to hit back 'hard' after first exchange of fire with Iran i",
      "url": "https://www.channelnewsasia.com/world/trump-vows-hit-back-hard-after-first-exchange-fire-iran-in-weeks-6352671",
      "published_at": "2026-08-31T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-01T13:00:06+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG2026083104 published 2026-08-31T00:00:00.000Z signature sha256-30750e957a3… ← underlying event all signals →