Hormuz year-end reopening consensus hardens above three-quarters

Name: Hormuz year-end reopening consensus hardens above three-quarters
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-06-23T00:00:00.000Z
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Polymarket 78%

record: CMSIG2026062302 | category: momentum-repricing | target: CM-EVT-LCPV825X09 | published: 2026-06-23

4-bullet brief | narrative

Polymarket prices Hormuz traffic returning to normal by December 31 at 78%.
Iran's assertion of control over Hormuz is at odds with the elevated probability, suggesting markets weight the broader diplomatic trajectory over Iran's bargaining posture.
The June 30 Hormuz deadline contract sits at only 18%, showing the market expects normalization to take months, not days.
Resolves via portwatch.imf.org traffic data; the definition of 'normal' relative to pre-war baselines is the key settlement edge.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] news_event

significance

surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market

story: Iran insisted it will control the Strait of Hormuz even as the US agreed to lift sanctions following Switzerland talks.exa_search → news24.com · as_of 2026-06-23T10:59:18+00:00
publisher: news24.com
published_at: 2026-06-23T00:00:00.000Z
source_url: https://www.news24.com/world/iran-insists-it-will-control-strait-of-hormuz-as-us-agrees-to-lift-sanctions-20260623-0295

[02] pm_response

interp: Polymarket's 78% year-end price versus 18% end-of-June price reveals a market expecting a gradual, post-deal normalization arc rather than an imminent reopening.llm_judge_cm_signal_v1

evaluation

News-cycle wires publish on coverage, not editorial selection — the day’s top stories matched to the prediction markets pricing them, so nothing is cherry-picked.

judge_engine: none — deterministic news-cycle scan
judge_verdict: auto_published
judge_confidence: n/a — no judge gate (deterministic publishing)
prompt_template: news_cycle_v1 github · auditable
match_method: entity_slug_match (mechanical)

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31/

external

venue_a: polymarket · 0x5c79dfde05559b79a9cb9f7c4187e4d49632dd042572ae676952f812732591cc

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/hormuz-normal-by-dec-31-polymarket-78-2026-06-23/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/hormuz-normal-by-dec-31-polymarket-78-2026-06-23.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("hormuz-normal-by-dec-31-polymarket-78-2026-06-23")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026062302",
  "published_at": "2026-06-23T00:00:00.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-LCPV825X09",
  "target_event_slug": "strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31",
  "event_question": "Will traffic through the Strait of Hormuz return to normal by December 31?",
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices Hormuz traffic returning to normal by December 31 at 78%.",
    "Iran's assertion of control over Hormuz is at odds with the elevated probability, suggesting markets weight the broader diplomatic trajectory over Iran's bargaining posture.",
    "The June 30 Hormuz deadline contract sits at only 18%, showing the market expects normalization to take months, not days.",
    "Resolves via portwatch.imf.org traffic data; the definition of 'normal' relative to pre-war baselines is the key settlement edge."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "news24.com",
          "source_url": "https://www.news24.com/world/iran-insists-it-will-control-strait-of-hormuz-as-us-agrees-to-lift-sanctions-20260623-0295",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-06-23T10:59:18+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "Iran insisted it will control the Strait of Hormuz even as the US agreed to lift sanctions following Switzerland talks.",
      "publisher": "news24.com",
      "published_at": "2026-06-23T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.news24.com/world/iran-insists-it-will-control-strait-of-hormuz-as-us-agrees-to-lift-sanctions-20260623-0295"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket's 78% year-end price versus 18% end-of-June price reveals a market expecting a gradual, post-deal normalization arc rather than an imminent reopening."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": null,
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "news24.com: Iran insists it will control Strait of Hormuz as US agrees to lift san",
      "url": "https://www.news24.com/world/iran-insists-it-will-control-strait-of-hormuz-as-us-agrees-to-lift-sanctions-20260623-0295",
      "published_at": "2026-06-23T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-06-23T10:59:18+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG2026062302 published 2026-06-23T00:00:00.000Z signature sha256-7c90233c79f… ← underlying event all signals →