Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by year-end stays a long shot

Name: Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by year-end stays a long shot
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-10-23T00:00:00.000Z
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Polymarket 12%

record: CMSIG2026102306 | category: momentum-repricing | target: CM-EVT-LCPV825X09 | published: 2026-10-23

4-bullet brief | narrative

The Polymarket prediction market puts only 12% odds on Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by December 31.
Iran's reported tanker attacks and ongoing threats of wider strikes on economic targets are consistent with the market's deeply skeptical pricing.
Oil near $100 per barrel, noted in concurrent market coverage, is the direct transmission mechanism from Hormuz disruption into broader inflation risk.
Resolves via Polymarket's UMA oracle; the definition of 'normal' traffic levels is a key ambiguity that could drive resolution disputes.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] news_event

significance

surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market

story: Iran reported attacks on seven oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, with the UN urging a return to diplomacy as regional tensions remained elevated.exa_search → ETV Bharat English Team · as_of 2026-10-23T13:03:13+00:00
publisher: ETV Bharat English Team
published_at: 2026-10-23T00:00:00.000Z
source_url: https://www.etvbharat.com/en/international/live-blog--us-israel-iran-war-houthi-saudi-arabia-strait-of-hormuz-latest-updates-enn26102300426

[02] pm_response

interp: Polymarket at 12% firmly rejects near-term Hormuz normalization, aligned with active tanker attacks and Iran's escalatory posture.llm_judge_cm_signal_v1

evaluation

News-cycle wires publish on coverage, not editorial selection — the day’s top stories matched to the prediction markets pricing them, so nothing is cherry-picked.

judge_engine: none — deterministic news-cycle scan
judge_verdict: auto_published
judge_confidence: n/a — no judge gate (deterministic publishing)
prompt_template: news_cycle_v1 github · auditable
match_method: entity_slug_match (mechanical)

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31/

external

venue_a: polymarket · 0x5c79dfde05559b79a9cb9f7c4187e4d49632dd042572ae676952f812732591cc

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/hormuz-traffic-normal-by-dec-31-polymarket-12-2026-10-23/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/hormuz-traffic-normal-by-dec-31-polymarket-12-2026-10-23.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("hormuz-traffic-normal-by-dec-31-polymarket-12-2026-10-23")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026102306",
  "published_at": "2026-10-23T00:00:00.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-LCPV825X09",
  "target_event_slug": "strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31",
  "event_question": "Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal by December 31?",
  "bullets": [
    "The Polymarket prediction market puts only 12% odds on Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by December 31.",
    "Iran's reported tanker attacks and ongoing threats of wider strikes on economic targets are consistent with the market's deeply skeptical pricing.",
    "Oil near $100 per barrel, noted in concurrent market coverage, is the direct transmission mechanism from Hormuz disruption into broader inflation risk.",
    "Resolves via Polymarket's UMA oracle; the definition of 'normal' traffic levels is a key ambiguity that could drive resolution disputes."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "ETV Bharat English Team",
          "source_url": "https://www.etvbharat.com/en/international/live-blog--us-israel-iran-war-houthi-saudi-arabia-strait-of-hormuz-latest-updates-enn26102300426",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-10-23T13:03:13+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "Iran reported attacks on seven oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, with the UN urging a return to diplomacy as regional tensions remained elevated.",
      "publisher": "ETV Bharat English Team",
      "published_at": "2026-10-23T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.etvbharat.com/en/international/live-blog--us-israel-iran-war-houthi-saudi-arabia-strait-of-hormuz-latest-updates-enn26102300426"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket at 12% firmly rejects near-term Hormuz normalization, aligned with active tanker attacks and Iran's escalatory posture."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": null,
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ETV Bharat English Team: West Asia Crisis LIVE | 7 Oil Tankers Attacked In Hormuz, Says Iran; U",
      "url": "https://www.etvbharat.com/en/international/live-blog--us-israel-iran-war-houthi-saudi-arabia-strait-of-hormuz-latest-updates-enn26102300426",
      "published_at": "2026-10-23T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-23T13:03:13+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG2026102306 published 2026-10-23T00:00:00.000Z signature sha256-6cc63c675ee… ← underlying event all signals →