Hormuz traffic back to normal by year-end stays near 17 percent

Name: Hormuz traffic back to normal by year-end stays near 17 percent
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-10-11T14:04:32.000Z
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Polymarket 17%

record: CMSIG2026101107 | category: momentum-repricing | target: CM-EVT-LCPV825X09 | published: 2026-10-11

4-bullet brief | narrative

Polymarket puts just 17% odds on Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by December 31, 2026.
Escalating IRGC attacks and stalled war-ending efforts are consistent with the market's bearish read on near-term normalization.
A separate news report describes US forces disabling a ship attempting to breach Iran's Gulf of Oman blockade, adding operational evidence for continued disruption.
Trump separately said he is considering joining Saudi Arabia in striking Houthi targets, an escalation path that would further reduce normalization odds.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] news_event

significance

surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market

story: IRGC warnings intensified and Hormuz attack activity escalated as US-Israel-Iran war efforts showed no sign of resolution.exa_search → Maziar Motamedi · as_of 2026-10-11T14:35:49+00:00
publisher: Maziar Motamedi
published_at: 2026-10-11T14:04:32.000Z
source_url: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/10/11/hormuz-attacks-intensify-as-efforts-to-end-war-on-iran-stall

[02] pm_response

interp: Polymarket contract resolves via uma_oracle; at 17%, the market is treating full Hormuz normalization by year-end as a tail outcome given current military posture.llm_judge_cm_signal_v1

evaluation

News-cycle wires publish on coverage, not editorial selection — the day’s top stories matched to the prediction markets pricing them, so nothing is cherry-picked.

judge_engine: none — deterministic news-cycle scan
judge_verdict: auto_published
judge_confidence: n/a — no judge gate (deterministic publishing)
prompt_template: news_cycle_v1 github · auditable
match_method: entity_slug_match (mechanical)

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31/

external

venue_a: polymarket · 0x5c79dfde05559b79a9cb9f7c4187e4d49632dd042572ae676952f812732591cc

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/hormuz-traffic-normal-by-dec-31-polymarket-17-2026-10-11/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/hormuz-traffic-normal-by-dec-31-polymarket-17-2026-10-11.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("hormuz-traffic-normal-by-dec-31-polymarket-17-2026-10-11")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026101107",
  "published_at": "2026-10-11T14:04:32.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-LCPV825X09",
  "target_event_slug": "strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31",
  "event_question": "Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal by December 31?",
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket puts just 17% odds on Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by December 31, 2026.",
    "Escalating IRGC attacks and stalled war-ending efforts are consistent with the market's bearish read on near-term normalization.",
    "A separate news report describes US forces disabling a ship attempting to breach Iran's Gulf of Oman blockade, adding operational evidence for continued disruption.",
    "Trump separately said he is considering joining Saudi Arabia in striking Houthi targets, an escalation path that would further reduce normalization odds."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Maziar Motamedi",
          "source_url": "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/10/11/hormuz-attacks-intensify-as-efforts-to-end-war-on-iran-stall",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-10-11T14:35:49+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "IRGC warnings intensified and Hormuz attack activity escalated as US-Israel-Iran war efforts showed no sign of resolution.",
      "publisher": "Maziar Motamedi",
      "published_at": "2026-10-11T14:04:32.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/10/11/hormuz-attacks-intensify-as-efforts-to-end-war-on-iran-stall"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket contract resolves via uma_oracle; at 17%, the market is treating full Hormuz normalization by year-end as a tail outcome given current military posture."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": null,
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Maziar Motamedi: Hormuz attacks intensify as efforts to end war on Iran stall | US-Isra",
      "url": "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/10/11/hormuz-attacks-intensify-as-efforts-to-end-war-on-iran-stall",
      "published_at": "2026-10-11T14:04:32.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-11T14:35:49+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG2026101107 published 2026-10-11T14:04:32.000Z signature sha256-b0f20dbdbfb… ← underlying event all signals →