Hormuz traffic back to normal by year-end stays unlikely

Name: Hormuz traffic back to normal by year-end stays unlikely
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-09-27T00:00:00.000Z
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Polymarket 19%

record: CMSIG2026092704 | category: momentum-repricing | target: CM-EVT-LCPV825X09 | published: 2026-09-27

4-bullet brief | narrative

Polymarket puts just 19% on Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by December 31, 2026.
Iran's refusal to back down after Trump's rejection is consistent with the market's skeptical pricing, both sides remain far apart, and the market is not treating a year-end deal as a base case.
The Kalshi contract on the US reopening its embassy in Iran sits at only 4%, with volume up 1553x day-over-day, signaling a sharp spike in attention on Iran-related resolution risk.
The Polymarket contract resolves via UMA oracle, likely on publicly verifiable transit data; the definition of 'normal' traffic levels is a key settlement edge case given disrupted baseline.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] news_event

significance

surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market

story: Iran stood firm Sunday on its conditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz after Trump rejected the foreign minister's seven-day plan, leaving no deal framework in place.exa_search → afp.com · as_of 2026-09-27T13:30:43+00:00
publisher: afp.com
published_at: 2026-09-27T00:00:00.000Z
source_url: https://www.afp.com/en/iran-stands-firm-hormuz-plan-after-us-rejection

[02] pm_response

interp: Polymarket at 19% and the embassy contract at 4% on Kalshi paint a consistent picture: the market sees no near-term diplomatic breakthrough despite Iran's stated desire for a deal.llm_judge_cm_signal_v1

evaluation

News-cycle wires publish on coverage, not editorial selection — the day’s top stories matched to the prediction markets pricing them, so nothing is cherry-picked.

judge_engine: none — deterministic news-cycle scan
judge_verdict: auto_published
judge_confidence: n/a — no judge gate (deterministic publishing)
prompt_template: news_cycle_v1 github · auditable
match_method: entity_slug_match (mechanical)

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31/

external

venue_a: polymarket · 0x5c79dfde05559b79a9cb9f7c4187e4d49632dd042572ae676952f812732591cc

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/hormuz-traffic-normal-by-dec-31-polymarket-19-2026-09-27/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/hormuz-traffic-normal-by-dec-31-polymarket-19-2026-09-27.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("hormuz-traffic-normal-by-dec-31-polymarket-19-2026-09-27")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026092704",
  "published_at": "2026-09-27T00:00:00.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-LCPV825X09",
  "target_event_slug": "strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31",
  "event_question": "Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal by December 31?",
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket puts just 19% on Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by December 31, 2026.",
    "Iran's refusal to back down after Trump's rejection is consistent with the market's skeptical pricing, both sides remain far apart, and the market is not treating a year-end deal as a base case.",
    "The Kalshi contract on the US reopening its embassy in Iran sits at only 4%, with volume up 1553x day-over-day, signaling a sharp spike in attention on Iran-related resolution risk.",
    "The Polymarket contract resolves via UMA oracle, likely on publicly verifiable transit data; the definition of 'normal' traffic levels is a key settlement edge case given disrupted baseline."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "afp.com",
          "source_url": "https://www.afp.com/en/iran-stands-firm-hormuz-plan-after-us-rejection",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-09-27T13:30:43+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "Iran stood firm Sunday on its conditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz after Trump rejected the foreign minister's seven-day plan, leaving no deal framework in place.",
      "publisher": "afp.com",
      "published_at": "2026-09-27T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.afp.com/en/iran-stands-firm-hormuz-plan-after-us-rejection"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket at 19% and the embassy contract at 4% on Kalshi paint a consistent picture: the market sees no near-term diplomatic breakthrough despite Iran's stated desire for a deal."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": null,
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "afp.com: Iran stands firm on Hormuz plan after US rejection | AFP.com",
      "url": "https://www.afp.com/en/iran-stands-firm-hormuz-plan-after-us-rejection",
      "published_at": "2026-09-27T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-27T13:30:43+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG2026092704 published 2026-09-27T00:00:00.000Z signature sha256-102e65cae8f… ← underlying event all signals →