Hormuz traffic back to normal by year-end stays long shot

Name: Hormuz traffic back to normal by year-end stays long shot
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-10-04T08:22:07.000Z
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Polymarket 19%

record: CMSIG2026100406 | category: momentum-repricing | target: CM-EVT-LCPV825X09 | published: 2026-10-04

4-bullet brief | narrative

Polymarket prices only 19% on Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by December 31, 2026.
Iran's explicit conditionality statement is consistent with the market's skeptical pricing, resolution before year-end looks unlikely.
With roughly three months remaining and no diplomatic framework visible, the 19% reflects tail-risk scenario odds only.
Companion Kalshi contract CM-EVT-34SYT4T2T1 (US reopens embassy in Iran) sits at 4%, suggesting the market sees full normalization as even more remote.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] news_event

significance

surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market

story: Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz will not reopen until its conditions are met, as Trump signaled decisions on Iran are imminent.exa_search → The National · as_of 2026-10-04T13:39:12+00:00
publisher: The National
published_at: 2026-10-04T08:22:07.000Z
source_url: https://www.thenationalnews.com/news/gulf/2026/10/04/iran-says-strait-of-hormuz-will-not-reopen-until-its-conditions-are-met/

[02] pm_response

interp: Resolves via Polymarket UMA oracle; Iran's stated conditions create a high bar for the normal-traffic definition.llm_judge_cm_signal_v1

evaluation

News-cycle wires publish on coverage, not editorial selection — the day’s top stories matched to the prediction markets pricing them, so nothing is cherry-picked.

judge_engine: none — deterministic news-cycle scan
judge_verdict: auto_published
judge_confidence: n/a — no judge gate (deterministic publishing)
prompt_template: news_cycle_v1 github · auditable
match_method: entity_slug_match (mechanical)

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31/

external

venue_a: polymarket · 0x5c79dfde05559b79a9cb9f7c4187e4d49632dd042572ae676952f812732591cc

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/hormuz-traffic-normal-by-dec-31-polymarket-19-2026-10-04/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/hormuz-traffic-normal-by-dec-31-polymarket-19-2026-10-04.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("hormuz-traffic-normal-by-dec-31-polymarket-19-2026-10-04")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026100406",
  "published_at": "2026-10-04T08:22:07.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-LCPV825X09",
  "target_event_slug": "strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31",
  "event_question": "Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal by December 31?",
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices only 19% on Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by December 31, 2026.",
    "Iran's explicit conditionality statement is consistent with the market's skeptical pricing, resolution before year-end looks unlikely.",
    "With roughly three months remaining and no diplomatic framework visible, the 19% reflects tail-risk scenario odds only.",
    "Companion Kalshi contract CM-EVT-34SYT4T2T1 (US reopens embassy in Iran) sits at 4%, suggesting the market sees full normalization as even more remote."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "The National",
          "source_url": "https://www.thenationalnews.com/news/gulf/2026/10/04/iran-says-strait-of-hormuz-will-not-reopen-until-its-conditions-are-met/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-10-04T13:39:12+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz will not reopen until its conditions are met, as Trump signaled decisions on Iran are imminent.",
      "publisher": "The National",
      "published_at": "2026-10-04T08:22:07.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.thenationalnews.com/news/gulf/2026/10/04/iran-says-strait-of-hormuz-will-not-reopen-until-its-conditions-are-met/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Resolves via Polymarket UMA oracle; Iran's stated conditions create a high bar for the normal-traffic definition."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": null,
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "The National: Iran says Strait of Hormuz will not reopen until its conditions are me",
      "url": "https://www.thenationalnews.com/news/gulf/2026/10/04/iran-says-strait-of-hormuz-will-not-reopen-until-its-conditions-are-met/",
      "published_at": "2026-10-04T08:22:07.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-04T13:39:12+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG2026100406 published 2026-10-04T08:22:07.000Z signature sha256-4b0f90d6180… ← underlying event all signals →