Hormuz traffic returning to normal by year-end stays below 25 percent

Name: Hormuz traffic returning to normal by year-end stays below 25 percent
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-09-05T00:00:00.000Z
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Polymarket 26%

record: CMSIG2026090508 | category: momentum-repricing | target: CM-EVT-LCPV825X09 | published: 2026-09-05

4-bullet brief | narrative

Polymarket prices 26% odds that Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31, resolving via UMA oracle.
US intelligence reporting that Iran views Hormuz as leverage and is weighing escalation is consistent with the sub-30% pricing, the market is not buying a near-term resolution.
At 26%, the market is treating Hormuz normalization as a long shot for 2026, implying persistent disruption risk in global energy shipping lanes.
Resolution via UMA oracle; 'normal' traffic levels will need a clear, verifiable benchmark, traders should watch how the oracle defines the baseline before the December deadline.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] news_event

significance

surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market

story: US intelligence assessments indicate Iran is determined to continue the war and is weighing major escalation, including leverage over the Strait of Hormuz.exa_search → ynet · as_of 2026-09-05T11:34:19+00:00
publisher: ynet
published_at: 2026-09-05T00:00:00.000Z
source_url: https://www.ynetnews.com/article/hkn9szfuzg

[02] pm_response

interp: Polymarket at 26% reflects broad skepticism about a Hormuz resolution this year, aligned with the hawkish US intelligence picture.llm_judge_cm_signal_v1

evaluation

News-cycle wires publish on coverage, not editorial selection — the day’s top stories matched to the prediction markets pricing them, so nothing is cherry-picked.

judge_engine: none — deterministic news-cycle scan
judge_verdict: auto_published
judge_confidence: n/a — no judge gate (deterministic publishing)
prompt_template: news_cycle_v1 github · auditable
match_method: entity_slug_match (mechanical)

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31/

external

venue_a: polymarket · 0x5c79dfde05559b79a9cb9f7c4187e4d49632dd042572ae676952f812732591cc

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/hormuz-traffic-normal-by-dec-31-polymarket-26-2026-09-05/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/hormuz-traffic-normal-by-dec-31-polymarket-26-2026-09-05.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("hormuz-traffic-normal-by-dec-31-polymarket-26-2026-09-05")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026090508",
  "published_at": "2026-09-05T00:00:00.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-LCPV825X09",
  "target_event_slug": "strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31",
  "event_question": "Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal by December 31?",
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices 26% odds that Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31, resolving via UMA oracle.",
    "US intelligence reporting that Iran views Hormuz as leverage and is weighing escalation is consistent with the sub-30% pricing, the market is not buying a near-term resolution.",
    "At 26%, the market is treating Hormuz normalization as a long shot for 2026, implying persistent disruption risk in global energy shipping lanes.",
    "Resolution via UMA oracle; 'normal' traffic levels will need a clear, verifiable benchmark, traders should watch how the oracle defines the baseline before the December deadline."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "ynet",
          "source_url": "https://www.ynetnews.com/article/hkn9szfuzg",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-09-05T11:34:19+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "US intelligence assessments indicate Iran is determined to continue the war and is weighing major escalation, including leverage over the Strait of Hormuz.",
      "publisher": "ynet",
      "published_at": "2026-09-05T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.ynetnews.com/article/hkn9szfuzg"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket at 26% reflects broad skepticism about a Hormuz resolution this year, aligned with the hawkish US intelligence picture."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": null,
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ynet: US intelligence: Iran determined to continue war, weighing major escal",
      "url": "https://www.ynetnews.com/article/hkn9szfuzg",
      "published_at": "2026-09-05T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-05T11:34:19+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG2026090508 published 2026-09-05T00:00:00.000Z signature sha256-d026d1edb0b… ← underlying event all signals →