Strait of Hormuz returning to normal by year-end stays a long shot

Name: Strait of Hormuz returning to normal by year-end stays a long shot
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-08-28T00:00:00.000Z
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Polymarket 32%

record: CMSIG2026082804 | category: momentum-repricing | target: CM-EVT-LCPV825X09 | published: 2026-08-28

4-bullet brief | narrative

Polymarket prices a 32% chance Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31, resolved via UMA oracle.
Qatar's mediation and Iran's willingness to draft conditions are positive signals, but the market assigns only roughly one-in-three odds of full restoration by year-end.
Trump's concurrent rejection of the June MoU terms, reported separately, helps explain why the market stays well below 50% despite active diplomacy.
Resolution requires verified normalization of shipping traffic through the Strait, not merely a diplomatic agreement, a higher bar that adds timeline risk.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] news_event

significance

surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market

story: Mediators are stepping up efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with Tehran agreeing to draft conditions for restoring normal traffic following a Qatari diplomatic intervention.exa_search → nbcnews.com · as_of 2026-08-28T19:51:53+00:00
publisher: nbcnews.com
published_at: 2026-08-28T00:00:00.000Z
source_url: https://www.nbcnews.com/world/iran/iran-war-mediators-focus-reopening-strait-hormuz-rcna594850

[02] pm_response

interp: Polymarket at 32% reflects diplomatic progress tempered by Trump's hardened sanctions posture and the gap between talks and operational reopening.llm_judge_cm_signal_v1

evaluation

News-cycle wires publish on coverage, not editorial selection — the day’s top stories matched to the prediction markets pricing them, so nothing is cherry-picked.

judge_engine: none — deterministic news-cycle scan
judge_verdict: auto_published
judge_confidence: n/a — no judge gate (deterministic publishing)
prompt_template: news_cycle_v1 github · auditable
match_method: entity_slug_match (mechanical)

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31/

external

venue_a: polymarket · 0x5c79dfde05559b79a9cb9f7c4187e4d49632dd042572ae676952f812732591cc

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/hormuz-traffic-normal-by-dec-31-polymarket-32-2026-08-28/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/hormuz-traffic-normal-by-dec-31-polymarket-32-2026-08-28.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("hormuz-traffic-normal-by-dec-31-polymarket-32-2026-08-28")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026082804",
  "published_at": "2026-08-28T00:00:00.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-LCPV825X09",
  "target_event_slug": "strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31",
  "event_question": "Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal by December 31?",
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices a 32% chance Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31, resolved via UMA oracle.",
    "Qatar's mediation and Iran's willingness to draft conditions are positive signals, but the market assigns only roughly one-in-three odds of full restoration by year-end.",
    "Trump's concurrent rejection of the June MoU terms, reported separately, helps explain why the market stays well below 50% despite active diplomacy.",
    "Resolution requires verified normalization of shipping traffic through the Strait, not merely a diplomatic agreement, a higher bar that adds timeline risk."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "nbcnews.com",
          "source_url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/world/iran/iran-war-mediators-focus-reopening-strait-hormuz-rcna594850",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-08-28T19:51:53+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "Mediators are stepping up efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with Tehran agreeing to draft conditions for restoring normal traffic following a Qatari diplomatic intervention.",
      "publisher": "nbcnews.com",
      "published_at": "2026-08-28T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/world/iran/iran-war-mediators-focus-reopening-strait-hormuz-rcna594850"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket at 32% reflects diplomatic progress tempered by Trump's hardened sanctions posture and the gap between talks and operational reopening."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": null,
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "nbcnews.com: Iran war mediators focus on reopening Strait of Hormuz",
      "url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/world/iran/iran-war-mediators-focus-reopening-strait-hormuz-rcna594850",
      "published_at": "2026-08-28T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-08-28T19:51:53+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG2026082804 published 2026-08-28T00:00:00.000Z signature sha256-8e03a098639… ← underlying event all signals →