Strait of Hormuz reopening by year-end stays a long shot

Name: Strait of Hormuz reopening by year-end stays a long shot
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-08-23T00:00:00.000Z
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Polymarket 33%

record: CMSIG2026082306 | category: momentum-repricing | target: CM-EVT-LCPV825X09 | published: 2026-08-23

4-bullet brief | narrative

The Polymarket contract prices Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by December 31 at 33%, keeping full reopening a distinct minority outcome.
U.S. sanctions escalation and Iran's defiant posture are consistent with this below-50% reading; China's diplomatic backing for talks is the main upside risk the market is partially pricing.
At 33%, the market is not ruling out a resolution, Pakistan's mediation role and Egypt's parallel diplomacy keep the tail alive.
Resolves via UMA oracle; 'normal' traffic is likely defined against a pre-conflict baseline, creating potential dispute risk at settlement.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] news_event

significance

surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market

story: China backed diplomatic talks with Iran as the U.S. prepared sweeping new sanctions under 'Operation Economic Outcast,' keeping Strait of Hormuz disruption at the center of global trade risk.exa_search → Randy Thanthong-Knight · as_of 2026-08-25T08:36:45+00:00
publisher: Randy Thanthong-Knight
published_at: 2026-08-23T00:00:00.000Z
source_url: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-08-23/china-actively-committed-to-iran-talks-with-tensions-rising

[02] pm_response

interp: Polymarket hosts this year-end contract at 33%; no near-term companion contract has a live price, leaving the full timeline risk concentrated in this single year-end read.llm_judge_cm_signal_v1

evaluation

News-cycle wires publish on coverage, not editorial selection — the day’s top stories matched to the prediction markets pricing them, so nothing is cherry-picked.

judge_engine: none — deterministic news-cycle scan
judge_verdict: auto_published
judge_confidence: n/a — no judge gate (deterministic publishing)
prompt_template: news_cycle_v1 github · auditable
match_method: entity_slug_match (mechanical)

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31/

external

venue_a: polymarket · 0x5c79dfde05559b79a9cb9f7c4187e4d49632dd042572ae676952f812732591cc

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/hormuz-traffic-normal-by-dec-31-polymarket-33-2026-08-23/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/hormuz-traffic-normal-by-dec-31-polymarket-33-2026-08-23.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("hormuz-traffic-normal-by-dec-31-polymarket-33-2026-08-23")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026082306",
  "published_at": "2026-08-23T00:00:00.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-LCPV825X09",
  "target_event_slug": "strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31",
  "event_question": "Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal by December 31?",
  "bullets": [
    "The Polymarket contract prices Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by December 31 at 33%, keeping full reopening a distinct minority outcome.",
    "U.S. sanctions escalation and Iran's defiant posture are consistent with this below-50% reading; China's diplomatic backing for talks is the main upside risk the market is partially pricing.",
    "At 33%, the market is not ruling out a resolution, Pakistan's mediation role and Egypt's parallel diplomacy keep the tail alive.",
    "Resolves via UMA oracle; 'normal' traffic is likely defined against a pre-conflict baseline, creating potential dispute risk at settlement."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Randy Thanthong-Knight",
          "source_url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-08-23/china-actively-committed-to-iran-talks-with-tensions-rising",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-08-25T08:36:45+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "China backed diplomatic talks with Iran as the U.S. prepared sweeping new sanctions under 'Operation Economic Outcast,' keeping Strait of Hormuz disruption at the center of global trade risk.",
      "publisher": "Randy Thanthong-Knight",
      "published_at": "2026-08-23T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-08-23/china-actively-committed-to-iran-talks-with-tensions-rising"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket hosts this year-end contract at 33%; no near-term companion contract has a live price, leaving the full timeline risk concentrated in this single year-end read."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": null,
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Randy Thanthong-Knight: China Backs Diplomatic Talks With Iran as US Prepares New Sanctions -",
      "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-08-23/china-actively-committed-to-iran-talks-with-tensions-rising",
      "published_at": "2026-08-23T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-08-25T08:36:45+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG2026082306 published 2026-08-23T00:00:00.000Z signature sha256-3567c215266… ← underlying event all signals →