Hormuz traffic back to normal by year-end sits below 40 percent

Name: Hormuz traffic back to normal by year-end sits below 40 percent
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-08-18T00:00:00.000Z
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Polymarket 36%

record: CMSIG2026081804 | category: momentum-repricing | target: CM-EVT-LCPV825X09 | published: 2026-08-18

4-bullet brief | narrative

Polymarket prices only 36% on Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by December 31, resolving via UMA oracle.
Active ship attacks and Trump's public denial of any Iran talks are consistent with the market's below-50% read, the news and the price are aligned on a pessimistic outlook.
Trump's claim that the strait is 'open and operating' and that mines have been removed is contradicted by the ship attack reported the same day, likely reinforcing the market's skepticism.
Resolves via UMA oracle assessing traffic normalization against defined baseline; settlement edge case exists if partial restoration is debated.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] news_event

significance

surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market

story: A ship was attacked in the Strait of Hormuz as Iran throttled traffic and Trump said the US had no talks planned with Iran.exa_search → apnews.com · as_of 2026-08-19T08:31:28+00:00
publisher: apnews.com
published_at: 2026-08-18T00:00:00.000Z
source_url: https://apnews.com/article/iran-us-israel-lebanon-gaza-hormuz-august-18-2026-9c48af23b713709e8e170191fbc78c2a

[02] pm_response

interp: Polymarket at 36% reflects sustained disruption risk; the news flow of active attacks and diplomatic breakdown is consistent with this pricing.llm_judge_cm_signal_v1

evaluation

News-cycle wires publish on coverage, not editorial selection — the day’s top stories matched to the prediction markets pricing them, so nothing is cherry-picked.

judge_engine: none — deterministic news-cycle scan
judge_verdict: auto_published
judge_confidence: n/a — no judge gate (deterministic publishing)
prompt_template: news_cycle_v1 github · auditable
match_method: entity_slug_match (mechanical)

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31/

external

venue_a: polymarket · 0x5c79dfde05559b79a9cb9f7c4187e4d49632dd042572ae676952f812732591cc

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/hormuz-traffic-normal-by-dec-31-polymarket-36-2026-08-18/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/hormuz-traffic-normal-by-dec-31-polymarket-36-2026-08-18.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("hormuz-traffic-normal-by-dec-31-polymarket-36-2026-08-18")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026081804",
  "published_at": "2026-08-18T00:00:00.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-LCPV825X09",
  "target_event_slug": "strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31",
  "event_question": "Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal by December 31?",
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices only 36% on Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by December 31, resolving via UMA oracle.",
    "Active ship attacks and Trump's public denial of any Iran talks are consistent with the market's below-50% read, the news and the price are aligned on a pessimistic outlook.",
    "Trump's claim that the strait is 'open and operating' and that mines have been removed is contradicted by the ship attack reported the same day, likely reinforcing the market's skepticism.",
    "Resolves via UMA oracle assessing traffic normalization against defined baseline; settlement edge case exists if partial restoration is debated."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "apnews.com",
          "source_url": "https://apnews.com/article/iran-us-israel-lebanon-gaza-hormuz-august-18-2026-9c48af23b713709e8e170191fbc78c2a",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-08-19T08:31:28+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "A ship was attacked in the Strait of Hormuz as Iran throttled traffic and Trump said the US had no talks planned with Iran.",
      "publisher": "apnews.com",
      "published_at": "2026-08-18T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://apnews.com/article/iran-us-israel-lebanon-gaza-hormuz-august-18-2026-9c48af23b713709e8e170191fbc78c2a"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket at 36% reflects sustained disruption risk; the news flow of active attacks and diplomatic breakdown is consistent with this pricing."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": null,
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "apnews.com: Ship attacked in Hormuz strait as Iran throttles traffic through key w",
      "url": "https://apnews.com/article/iran-us-israel-lebanon-gaza-hormuz-august-18-2026-9c48af23b713709e8e170191fbc78c2a",
      "published_at": "2026-08-18T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-08-19T08:31:28+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG2026081804 published 2026-08-18T00:00:00.000Z signature sha256-db431ba6ec4… ← underlying event all signals →