Hormuz traffic returning to normal by year-end holds near even odds

Name: Hormuz traffic returning to normal by year-end holds near even odds
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-07-20T00:00:00.000Z
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Polymarket 56%

record: CMSIG2026072006 | category: momentum-repricing | target: CM-EVT-LCPV825X09 | published: 2026-07-20

4-bullet brief | narrative

Polymarket prices a 56% probability that Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31, 2026.
Ten consecutive nights of US strikes and active IRGC tanker attacks have not pushed the contract below 50%; the market leans toward eventual resolution.
The 56% reading implies the market is treating current escalation as a path toward negotiated reopening rather than permanent disruption, though conviction is limited.
Resolves via Polymarket UMA oracle; 'normal' traffic must be verifiable; the Iran enrichment deal contract at 21% (Story 20) highlights the gap between tactical and diplomatic resolution odds.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] news_event

significance

surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market

story: The US military bombed Iran for a tenth consecutive night in a renewed push to reopen the Strait of Hormuz after IRGC attacks on oil tankers.exa_search → theglobeandmail.com · as_of 2026-07-21T10:22:25+00:00
publisher: theglobeandmail.com
published_at: 2026-07-20T00:00:00.000Z
source_url: https://www.theglobeandmail.com/world/article-us-and-iran-trade-fire/

[02] pm_response

interp: Polymarket at 56% for Hormuz normalization; the contract sits near even odds despite ten nights of strikes, signaling deep uncertainty on the conflict timeline.llm_judge_cm_signal_v1

evaluation

News-cycle wires publish on coverage, not editorial selection — the day’s top stories matched to the prediction markets pricing them, so nothing is cherry-picked.

judge_engine: none — deterministic news-cycle scan
judge_verdict: auto_published
judge_confidence: n/a — no judge gate (deterministic publishing)
prompt_template: news_cycle_v1 github · auditable
match_method: entity_slug_match (mechanical)

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31/

external

venue_a: polymarket · 0x5c79dfde05559b79a9cb9f7c4187e4d49632dd042572ae676952f812732591cc

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/hormuz-traffic-normal-by-dec-31-polymarket-56-2026-07-20/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/hormuz-traffic-normal-by-dec-31-polymarket-56-2026-07-20.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("hormuz-traffic-normal-by-dec-31-polymarket-56-2026-07-20")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026072006",
  "published_at": "2026-07-20T00:00:00.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-LCPV825X09",
  "target_event_slug": "strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31",
  "event_question": "Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal by December 31?",
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices a 56% probability that Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31, 2026.",
    "Ten consecutive nights of US strikes and active IRGC tanker attacks have not pushed the contract below 50%; the market leans toward eventual resolution.",
    "The 56% reading implies the market is treating current escalation as a path toward negotiated reopening rather than permanent disruption, though conviction is limited.",
    "Resolves via Polymarket UMA oracle; 'normal' traffic must be verifiable; the Iran enrichment deal contract at 21% (Story 20) highlights the gap between tactical and diplomatic resolution odds."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "theglobeandmail.com",
          "source_url": "https://www.theglobeandmail.com/world/article-us-and-iran-trade-fire/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-07-21T10:22:25+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "The US military bombed Iran for a tenth consecutive night in a renewed push to reopen the Strait of Hormuz after IRGC attacks on oil tankers.",
      "publisher": "theglobeandmail.com",
      "published_at": "2026-07-20T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.theglobeandmail.com/world/article-us-and-iran-trade-fire/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket at 56% for Hormuz normalization; the contract sits near even odds despite ten nights of strikes, signaling deep uncertainty on the conflict timeline."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": null,
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "theglobeandmail.com: U.S. military bombs Iran for 10th consecutive night in renewed push to",
      "url": "https://www.theglobeandmail.com/world/article-us-and-iran-trade-fire/",
      "published_at": "2026-07-20T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-21T10:22:25+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG2026072006 published 2026-07-20T00:00:00.000Z signature sha256-82cc80247fc… ← underlying event all signals →