Hormuz traffic back to normal by year-end near 50-50

Name: Hormuz traffic back to normal by year-end near 50-50
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-08-04T00:00:00.000Z
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Polymarket 58%

record: CMSIG2026080405 | category: momentum-repricing | target: CM-EVT-LCPV825X09 | published: 2026-08-04

4-bullet brief | narrative

The Polymarket contract prices a 58% chance that Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31, 2026.
Reported progress on an Iran-Oman deal is broadly consistent with the above-50% pricing, but the market's near-coin-flip read signals substantial remaining doubt about final execution.
Iran's simultaneous threats of a Gulf 'blackout' over U.S. strikes (Story 28) and Trump's claim the strait is only 'sort of open' (Story 23) explain why the contract has not moved decisively higher.
A companion prediction market ladder (CM-EVT-JR1WTQ5JH0) implies current weekly transit calls in the 50-60 range, well below pre-conflict norms, underscoring why the year-end resolution question remains genuinely open.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] news_event

significance

surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market

story: Iran and Oman made progress toward a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with officials describing negotiations as advancing.exa_search → apnews.com · as_of 2026-08-07T08:53:43+00:00
publisher: apnews.com
published_at: 2026-08-04T00:00:00.000Z
source_url: https://apnews.com/article/iran-us-war-strait-hormuz-oman-diplomacy-6587f90f2ab5beec373ce5fabf637541

[02] pm_response

interp: Polymarket contract resolves via uma_oracle based on Strait of Hormuz commercial shipping data by December 31, 2026.llm_judge_cm_signal_v1

evaluation

News-cycle wires publish on coverage, not editorial selection — the day’s top stories matched to the prediction markets pricing them, so nothing is cherry-picked.

judge_engine: none — deterministic news-cycle scan
judge_verdict: auto_published
judge_confidence: n/a — no judge gate (deterministic publishing)
prompt_template: news_cycle_v1 github · auditable
match_method: entity_slug_match (mechanical)

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31/

external

venue_a: polymarket · 0x5c79dfde05559b79a9cb9f7c4187e4d49632dd042572ae676952f812732591cc

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/hormuz-traffic-normal-by-dec-31-polymarket-58-2026-08-04/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/hormuz-traffic-normal-by-dec-31-polymarket-58-2026-08-04.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("hormuz-traffic-normal-by-dec-31-polymarket-58-2026-08-04")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026080405",
  "published_at": "2026-08-04T00:00:00.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-LCPV825X09",
  "target_event_slug": "strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31",
  "event_question": "Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal by December 31?",
  "bullets": [
    "The Polymarket contract prices a 58% chance that Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31, 2026.",
    "Reported progress on an Iran-Oman deal is broadly consistent with the above-50% pricing, but the market's near-coin-flip read signals substantial remaining doubt about final execution.",
    "Iran's simultaneous threats of a Gulf 'blackout' over U.S. strikes (Story 28) and Trump's claim the strait is only 'sort of open' (Story 23) explain why the contract has not moved decisively higher.",
    "A companion prediction market ladder (CM-EVT-JR1WTQ5JH0) implies current weekly transit calls in the 50-60 range, well below pre-conflict norms, underscoring why the year-end resolution question remains genuinely open."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "apnews.com",
          "source_url": "https://apnews.com/article/iran-us-war-strait-hormuz-oman-diplomacy-6587f90f2ab5beec373ce5fabf637541",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-08-07T08:53:43+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "Iran and Oman made progress toward a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with officials describing negotiations as advancing.",
      "publisher": "apnews.com",
      "published_at": "2026-08-04T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://apnews.com/article/iran-us-war-strait-hormuz-oman-diplomacy-6587f90f2ab5beec373ce5fabf637541"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket contract resolves via uma_oracle based on Strait of Hormuz commercial shipping data by December 31, 2026."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": null,
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "apnews.com: Officials report progress on a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz | A",
      "url": "https://apnews.com/article/iran-us-war-strait-hormuz-oman-diplomacy-6587f90f2ab5beec373ce5fabf637541",
      "published_at": "2026-08-04T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-08-07T08:53:43+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG2026080405 published 2026-08-04T00:00:00.000Z signature sha256-26d201c6d6e… ← underlying event all signals →