Strait of Hormuz traffic normalization by year-end holds majority pricing

Name: Strait of Hormuz traffic normalization by year-end holds majority pricing
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-06-06T02:14:28.000Z
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Polymarket 76%

record: CMSIG2026060605 | category: momentum-repricing | target: CM-EVT-LCPV825X09 | published: 2026-06-06

4-bullet brief | narrative

Polymarket prices 76% on Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by December 31, treating full-year normalization as the base case despite fresh escalation.
The drone intercept is consistent with continued disruption in the near term, but the market is pricing in resolution well before year-end.
The June 30 normalization contract sits at only 20% and the July 31 contract at 39%, revealing a steep near-term discount that flattens by December.
Polymarket contract resolves via PortWatch IMF shipping-traffic data; normalization requires measured vessel traffic to recover to pre-conflict baselines.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] news_event

significance

surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market

story: US forces intercepted and shot down four Iranian drones launched toward the Strait of Hormuz, which CENTCOM said posed an immediate threat to regional maritime traffic.exa_search → aa.com.tr · as_of 2026-06-06T10:00:26+00:00
publisher: aa.com.tr
published_at: 2026-06-06T02:14:28.000Z
source_url: https://www.aa.com.tr/en/us-israel-iran-war/us-forces-intercept-drones-launched-by-iran-toward-strait-of-hormuz-centcom/3958146

[02] pm_response

interp: Polymarket resolves via portwatch.imf.org shipping data; the gap between 20% by June 30 and 76% by December 31 reflects the market's expectation of a protracted but ultimately resolved disruption.llm_judge_cm_signal_v1

evaluation

News-cycle wires publish on coverage, not editorial selection — the day’s top stories matched to the prediction markets pricing them, so nothing is cherry-picked.

judge_engine: none — deterministic news-cycle scan
judge_verdict: auto_published
judge_confidence: n/a — no judge gate (deterministic publishing)
prompt_template: news_cycle_v1 github · auditable
match_method: entity_slug_match (mechanical)

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31/

external

venue_a: polymarket · 0x5c79dfde05559b79a9cb9f7c4187e4d49632dd042572ae676952f812732591cc

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/hormuz-traffic-normal-by-dec-31-polymarket-76-2026-06-06/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/hormuz-traffic-normal-by-dec-31-polymarket-76-2026-06-06.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("hormuz-traffic-normal-by-dec-31-polymarket-76-2026-06-06")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026060605",
  "published_at": "2026-06-06T02:14:28.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-LCPV825X09",
  "target_event_slug": "strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31",
  "event_question": "Will traffic through the Strait of Hormuz return to normal by December 31?",
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices 76% on Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by December 31, treating full-year normalization as the base case despite fresh escalation.",
    "The drone intercept is consistent with continued disruption in the near term, but the market is pricing in resolution well before year-end.",
    "The June 30 normalization contract sits at only 20% and the July 31 contract at 39%, revealing a steep near-term discount that flattens by December.",
    "Polymarket contract resolves via PortWatch IMF shipping-traffic data; normalization requires measured vessel traffic to recover to pre-conflict baselines."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "aa.com.tr",
          "source_url": "https://www.aa.com.tr/en/us-israel-iran-war/us-forces-intercept-drones-launched-by-iran-toward-strait-of-hormuz-centcom/3958146",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-06-06T10:00:26+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "US forces intercepted and shot down four Iranian drones launched toward the Strait of Hormuz, which CENTCOM said posed an immediate threat to regional maritime traffic.",
      "publisher": "aa.com.tr",
      "published_at": "2026-06-06T02:14:28.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.aa.com.tr/en/us-israel-iran-war/us-forces-intercept-drones-launched-by-iran-toward-strait-of-hormuz-centcom/3958146"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket resolves via portwatch.imf.org shipping data; the gap between 20% by June 30 and 76% by December 31 reflects the market's expectation of a protracted but ultimately resolved disruption."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": null,
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "aa.com.tr: US forces intercept drones launched by Iran toward Strait of Hormuz: C",
      "url": "https://www.aa.com.tr/en/us-israel-iran-war/us-forces-intercept-drones-launched-by-iran-toward-strait-of-hormuz-centcom/3958146",
      "published_at": "2026-06-06T02:14:28.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-06-06T10:00:26+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG2026060605 published 2026-06-06T02:14:28.000Z signature sha256-68a8761bf26… ← underlying event all signals →