Hormuz traffic normal by end of June: Polymarket 42%

{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026060207",
  "published_at": "2026-06-02T13:35:29.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-YPW93GCTK6",
  "target_event_slug": "strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-end-of-june",
  "event_question": "Will traffic through the Strait of Hormuz return to normal by the end of June?",
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices 42% on Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by end of June, versus 86% by December 31.",
    "Trump's one-week deal timeline would need to materialize rapidly to shift the near-term 42% toward the longer-dated 86%; the spread signals serious timeline doubt.",
    "Fraying ceasefire and stalled Iran talks reported elsewhere make the June 30 normalization window tight; the 44-point gap between June and December contracts reflects that uncertainty.",
    "Resolves via portwatch.imf.org shipping traffic data; normalization likely requires sustained passage rates returning to pre-conflict baselines."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "military.com",
          "source_url": "https://www.military.com/trump-tries-to-stop-israels-lebanon-push-derailing-an-iran-deal",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-06-03T01:50:17+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "Trump is trying to prevent Israel's Lebanon escalation from derailing an Iran deal, saying a memorandum of understanding could come within a week.",
      "publisher": "military.com",
      "published_at": "2026-06-02T13:35:29.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.military.com/trump-tries-to-stop-israels-lebanon-push-derailing-an-iran-deal"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "The 44-percentage-point spread between the June (42%) and December (86%) Polymarket Hormuz contracts quantifies the market's skepticism about Trump's one-week deal optimism."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-end-of-june/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": null,
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
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  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "military.com: Trump Tries to Stop Israel’s Lebanon Push Derailing an Iran Deal",
      "url": "https://www.military.com/trump-tries-to-stop-israels-lebanon-push-derailing-an-iran-deal",
      "published_at": "2026-06-02T13:35:29.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-06-03T01:50:17+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
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}