Hormuz June reopening consensus wavers near slim odds

Name: Hormuz June reopening consensus wavers near slim odds
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-06-21T00:22:00.000Z
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Polymarket 18%

record: CMSIG2026062102 | category: momentum-repricing | target: CM-EVT-YPW93GCTK6 | published: 2026-06-21

4-bullet brief | narrative

The Polymarket contract prices only 18% odds that Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June, resolving via portwatch.imf.org shipping data.
Iran's active Hormuz closure threats heading into the talks are consistent with the low near-term probability, markets do not expect a shipping breakthrough this month.
The December 31 companion Polymarket contract prices at 78%, showing the market sees eventual normalization as likely but not in the current negotiating window.
The June 30 contract for Iran agreeing to unrestricted Hormuz shipping prices at 31%, higher than the traffic normalization contract, suggesting markets see an agreement as possible but implementation as slower.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] news_event

significance

surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market

story: Iran threatened renewed Hormuz closure as US and Iranian delegations convened in Switzerland for high-stakes nuclear and shipping talks.exa_search → straitstimes.com · as_of 2026-06-21T11:13:58+00:00
publisher: straitstimes.com
published_at: 2026-06-21T00:22:00.000Z
source_url: https://www.straitstimes.com/world/middle-east/us-disputes-iranian-claims-about-closing-strait-of-hormuz-as-negotiators-head-to-switzerland

[02] pm_response

interp: Polymarket's 18% June versus 78% December spread on Hormuz normalization frames the talks as a medium-term catalyst, not an immediate resolution.llm_judge_cm_signal_v1

evaluation

News-cycle wires publish on coverage, not editorial selection — the day’s top stories matched to the prediction markets pricing them, so nothing is cherry-picked.

judge_engine: none — deterministic news-cycle scan
judge_verdict: auto_published
judge_confidence: n/a — no judge gate (deterministic publishing)
prompt_template: news_cycle_v1 github · auditable
match_method: entity_slug_match (mechanical)

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-end-of-june/

external

venue_a: polymarket · 0x348cd9adf4f6855f58bd9c6dbf9ff251c4142ef77233a5dc95c65b4b61cd2187

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/hormuz-traffic-normal-by-june-30-polymarket-18-2026-06-21/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/hormuz-traffic-normal-by-june-30-polymarket-18-2026-06-21.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("hormuz-traffic-normal-by-june-30-polymarket-18-2026-06-21")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026062102",
  "published_at": "2026-06-21T00:22:00.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-YPW93GCTK6",
  "target_event_slug": "strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-end-of-june",
  "event_question": "Will traffic through the Strait of Hormuz return to normal by the end of June?",
  "bullets": [
    "The Polymarket contract prices only 18% odds that Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June, resolving via portwatch.imf.org shipping data.",
    "Iran's active Hormuz closure threats heading into the talks are consistent with the low near-term probability, markets do not expect a shipping breakthrough this month.",
    "The December 31 companion Polymarket contract prices at 78%, showing the market sees eventual normalization as likely but not in the current negotiating window.",
    "The June 30 contract for Iran agreeing to unrestricted Hormuz shipping prices at 31%, higher than the traffic normalization contract, suggesting markets see an agreement as possible but implementation as slower."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "straitstimes.com",
          "source_url": "https://www.straitstimes.com/world/middle-east/us-disputes-iranian-claims-about-closing-strait-of-hormuz-as-negotiators-head-to-switzerland",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-06-21T11:13:58+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "Iran threatened renewed Hormuz closure as US and Iranian delegations convened in Switzerland for high-stakes nuclear and shipping talks.",
      "publisher": "straitstimes.com",
      "published_at": "2026-06-21T00:22:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.straitstimes.com/world/middle-east/us-disputes-iranian-claims-about-closing-strait-of-hormuz-as-negotiators-head-to-switzerland"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket's 18% June versus 78% December spread on Hormuz normalization frames the talks as a medium-term catalyst, not an immediate resolution."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-end-of-june/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": null,
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "straitstimes.com: Vance arrives in Switzerland for Iran peace talks with Hormuz in spotl",
      "url": "https://www.straitstimes.com/world/middle-east/us-disputes-iranian-claims-about-closing-strait-of-hormuz-as-negotiators-head-to-switzerland",
      "published_at": "2026-06-21T00:22:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-06-21T11:13:58+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG2026062102 published 2026-06-21T00:22:00.000Z signature sha256-2e8797348c4… ← underlying event all signals →