Iran uranium enrichment deal by year-end stays a long shot

Name: Iran uranium enrichment deal by year-end stays a long shot
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-08-15T00:00:00.000Z
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Polymarket 10%

record: CMSIG2026081506 | category: momentum-repricing | target: CM-EVT-4CKJ2D3T77 | published: 2026-08-15

4-bullet brief | narrative

Polymarket contract on Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by December 31 sits at just 10%, with trading volume up 10,953% day over day.
The extraordinary volume surge, over 110 times normal, signals the expired 60-day deadline and ongoing military posture are driving intense fresh attention to this contract.
Trump's threat to bomb US ally Oman and Iran's vow to escalate over Hormuz are directionally consistent with the low 10% probability.
Companion Kalshi contract on the US reopening its embassy in Iran (CM-EVT-34SYT4T2T1) sits at only 2%, confirming prediction markets see near-zero normalization near-term.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] news_event

significance

surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market

story: The US pulled its last aircraft carrier from Asia to focus on Iran and the Western Hemisphere as the 60-day Versailles ceasefire deadline expired without a broader deal.exa_search → apnews.com · as_of 2026-08-18T08:30:34+00:00
publisher: apnews.com
published_at: 2026-08-15T00:00:00.000Z
source_url: https://apnews.com/article/aircraft-carriers-trump-china-pacific-iran-war-87cfb838de8c13464fa3cab1840ad87d

[02] pm_response

interp: Polymarket contract resolves via UMA oracle; the volume explosion on the deadline expiry date makes this the most actively repriced geopolitical contract in this batch.llm_judge_cm_signal_v1

evaluation

News-cycle wires publish on coverage, not editorial selection — the day’s top stories matched to the prediction markets pricing them, so nothing is cherry-picked.

judge_engine: none — deterministic news-cycle scan
judge_verdict: auto_published
judge_confidence: n/a — no judge gate (deterministic publishing)
prompt_template: news_cycle_v1 github · auditable
match_method: entity_slug_match (mechanical)

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/iran-agrees-to-end-enrichment-of-uranium-by-december-31/

external

venue_a: polymarket · 0xff68b32e6543ae8b44ccb520604b6ea224a1bac071a186fb65f6f40949a758df

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/iran-ends-enrichment-by-dec-31-polymarket-10-2026-08-15/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/iran-ends-enrichment-by-dec-31-polymarket-10-2026-08-15.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("iran-ends-enrichment-by-dec-31-polymarket-10-2026-08-15")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026081506",
  "published_at": "2026-08-15T00:00:00.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-4CKJ2D3T77",
  "target_event_slug": "iran-agrees-to-end-enrichment-of-uranium-by-december-31",
  "event_question": "Will Iran agree to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?",
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket contract on Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by December 31 sits at just 10%, with trading volume up 10,953% day over day.",
    "The extraordinary volume surge, over 110 times normal, signals the expired 60-day deadline and ongoing military posture are driving intense fresh attention to this contract.",
    "Trump's threat to bomb US ally Oman and Iran's vow to escalate over Hormuz are directionally consistent with the low 10% probability.",
    "Companion Kalshi contract on the US reopening its embassy in Iran (CM-EVT-34SYT4T2T1) sits at only 2%, confirming prediction markets see near-zero normalization near-term."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "apnews.com",
          "source_url": "https://apnews.com/article/aircraft-carriers-trump-china-pacific-iran-war-87cfb838de8c13464fa3cab1840ad87d",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-08-18T08:30:34+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "The US pulled its last aircraft carrier from Asia to focus on Iran and the Western Hemisphere as the 60-day Versailles ceasefire deadline expired without a broader deal.",
      "publisher": "apnews.com",
      "published_at": "2026-08-15T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://apnews.com/article/aircraft-carriers-trump-china-pacific-iran-war-87cfb838de8c13464fa3cab1840ad87d"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket contract resolves via UMA oracle; the volume explosion on the deadline expiry date makes this the most actively repriced geopolitical contract in this batch."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/iran-agrees-to-end-enrichment-of-uranium-by-december-31/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": null,
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "apnews.com: Trump shifts aircraft carrier and US focus away from Asia | AP News",
      "url": "https://apnews.com/article/aircraft-carriers-trump-china-pacific-iran-war-87cfb838de8c13464fa3cab1840ad87d",
      "published_at": "2026-08-15T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-08-18T08:30:34+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG2026081506 published 2026-08-15T00:00:00.000Z signature sha256-b117c6ae905… ← underlying event all signals →