Iran uranium enrichment end by year-end stays a long shot

Name: Iran uranium enrichment end by year-end stays a long shot
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-07-26T00:00:00.000Z
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Polymarket 22%

record: CMSIG2026072604 | category: momentum-repricing | target: CM-EVT-4CKJ2D3T77 | published: 2026-07-26

4-bullet brief | narrative

Polymarket puts 22% odds on Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by December 31, 2026.
The airstrike pause and active diplomacy are positive signals, but the market prices the deal as unlikely, skepticism outweighs the ceasefire narrative.
The Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by December 31 sits at 58% on Polymarket, a notably higher probability, suggesting markets see shipping normalization as more achievable than a full nuclear deal.
The Kalshi contract on Trump visiting Iran sits at only 3%, consistent with talks being conducted at lower diplomatic levels.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] news_event

significance

surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market

story: US airstrikes on Iran paused after nearly two weeks, with diplomatic talks pressing forward to avert a return to all-out war.exa_search → Reuters · as_of 2026-07-26T09:55:47+00:00
publisher: Reuters
published_at: 2026-07-26T00:00:00.000Z
source_url: https://quews.news/iran-war-spreads-to/

[02] pm_response

interp: Polymarket contract resolves via UMA oracle; the year-end deadline leaves roughly five months for a deal to materialize.llm_judge_cm_signal_v1

evaluation

News-cycle wires publish on coverage, not editorial selection — the day’s top stories matched to the prediction markets pricing them, so nothing is cherry-picked.

judge_engine: none — deterministic news-cycle scan
judge_verdict: auto_published
judge_confidence: n/a — no judge gate (deterministic publishing)
prompt_template: news_cycle_v1 github · auditable
match_method: entity_slug_match (mechanical)

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/iran-agrees-to-end-enrichment-of-uranium-by-december-31/

external

venue_a: polymarket · 0xff68b32e6543ae8b44ccb520604b6ea224a1bac071a186fb65f6f40949a758df

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/iran-ends-enrichment-by-dec-31-polymarket-22-2026-07-26/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/iran-ends-enrichment-by-dec-31-polymarket-22-2026-07-26.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("iran-ends-enrichment-by-dec-31-polymarket-22-2026-07-26")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026072604",
  "published_at": "2026-07-26T00:00:00.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-4CKJ2D3T77",
  "target_event_slug": "iran-agrees-to-end-enrichment-of-uranium-by-december-31",
  "event_question": "Will Iran agree to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?",
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket puts 22% odds on Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by December 31, 2026.",
    "The airstrike pause and active diplomacy are positive signals, but the market prices the deal as unlikely, skepticism outweighs the ceasefire narrative.",
    "The Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by December 31 sits at 58% on Polymarket, a notably higher probability, suggesting markets see shipping normalization as more achievable than a full nuclear deal.",
    "The Kalshi contract on Trump visiting Iran sits at only 3%, consistent with talks being conducted at lower diplomatic levels."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Reuters",
          "source_url": "https://quews.news/iran-war-spreads-to/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-07-26T09:55:47+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "US airstrikes on Iran paused after nearly two weeks, with diplomatic talks pressing forward to avert a return to all-out war.",
      "publisher": "Reuters",
      "published_at": "2026-07-26T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://quews.news/iran-war-spreads-to/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket contract resolves via UMA oracle; the year-end deadline leaves roughly five months for a deal to materialize."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/iran-agrees-to-end-enrichment-of-uranium-by-december-31/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": null,
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Reuters: Iran war spreads to Red Sea and Caspian, Gulf quiet as US forgoes stri",
      "url": "https://quews.news/iran-war-spreads-to/",
      "published_at": "2026-07-26T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-26T09:55:47+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG2026072604 published 2026-07-26T00:00:00.000Z signature sha256-4bb940c3ca6… ← underlying event all signals →