Iran unrestricted Hormuz shipping by June 30 fractures

{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026062505",
  "published_at": "2026-06-25T20:16:00.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-FP5Q8518G7",
  "target_event_slug": "iran-agrees-to-unrestricted-shipping-through-hormuz-by-june-30",
  "event_question": "Will Iran agree to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?",
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices 31% on Iran agreeing to unrestricted Hormuz shipping by June 30, a below-even probability with four days remaining in the window.",
    "The drone strike on a commercial vessel is directly at odds with the near-term resolution scenario the 31% price implies.",
    "The companion Polymarket contract on Hormuz traffic returning to normal by December 31 prices at 78%, showing the market sees eventual normalization but not before month-end.",
    "Resolves via UMA oracle; the July 31 traffic-return contract at 47% and the December contract at 78% reveal a market pricing a multi-month delay, not a near-term fix."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "cbsnews.com",
          "source_url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/news/iran-strikes-commercial-ship-strait-of-hormuz-us-iran-deal-oil/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-06-26T10:48:01+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "Iran's Revolutionary Guards struck a Singapore-flagged commercial vessel in the Strait of Hormuz with a drone, pausing UN evacuation efforts.",
      "publisher": "cbsnews.com",
      "published_at": "2026-06-25T20:16:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/news/iran-strikes-commercial-ship-strait-of-hormuz-us-iran-deal-oil/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket's three-horizon Hormuz term structure (18% June, 47% July, 78% December) shows the market treating the drone strike as a near-term resolution blocker."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/iran-agrees-to-unrestricted-shipping-through-hormuz-by-june-30/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": null,
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "cbsnews.com: Iran strikes commercial ship in Strait of Hormuz in challenge to U.S.-",
      "url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/news/iran-strikes-commercial-ship-strait-of-hormuz-us-iran-deal-oil/",
      "published_at": "2026-06-25T20:16:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-06-26T10:48:01+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}