Hormuz unrestricted shipping by June 30 pricing fractures

Name: Hormuz unrestricted shipping by June 30 pricing fractures
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-06-22T00:20:37.000Z
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Polymarket 31%

record: CMSIG2026062203 | category: momentum-repricing | target: CM-EVT-FP5Q8518G7 | published: 2026-06-22

4-bullet brief | narrative

Polymarket prices Iran formally agreeing to unrestricted Hormuz shipping by June 30 at 31%, well below even odds with 8 days left.
Progress in Switzerland is real but the headline roadmap targets 60 days, not 8, making the June 30 bar difficult to clear.
A companion Polymarket contract asking only whether any ships transit by June 30 sits at 28%, nearly identical, suggesting markets see partial reopening as nearly as unlikely as a full agreement.
Resolves via uma_oracle; the requirement is a formal Iranian agreement on unrestricted passage, not merely resumed negotiations or transit of a single vessel.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] news_event

significance

surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market

story: US-Iran talks continue in Switzerland with encouraging progress reported, but Trump reiterated threats to take over the Strait while Iran has not yet formally agreed to reopen it.exa_search → straitstimes.com · as_of 2026-06-22T13:32:28+00:00
publisher: straitstimes.com
published_at: 2026-06-22T00:20:37.000Z
source_url: https://www.straitstimes.com/world/middle-east/us-iran-talks-go-into-day-2-after-trump-threats-hormuz-closure

[02] pm_response

interp: Polymarket at 31% is consistent with the parallel any-transit contract at 28%, indicating the market is pricing little daylight between a partial and a full agreement by month-end.llm_judge_cm_signal_v1

evaluation

News-cycle wires publish on coverage, not editorial selection — the day’s top stories matched to the prediction markets pricing them, so nothing is cherry-picked.

judge_engine: none — deterministic news-cycle scan
judge_verdict: auto_published
judge_confidence: n/a — no judge gate (deterministic publishing)
prompt_template: news_cycle_v1 github · auditable
match_method: entity_slug_match (mechanical)

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/iran-agrees-to-unrestricted-shipping-through-hormuz-by-june-30/

external

venue_a: polymarket · 0x1723b7ee4118dee6ae6be8802cb7b6e239c37d199997b20a8191e32553a5bd68

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/iran-unrestricted-hormuz-by-june-30-polymarket-31-2026-06-22/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/iran-unrestricted-hormuz-by-june-30-polymarket-31-2026-06-22.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("iran-unrestricted-hormuz-by-june-30-polymarket-31-2026-06-22")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026062203",
  "published_at": "2026-06-22T00:20:37.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-FP5Q8518G7",
  "target_event_slug": "iran-agrees-to-unrestricted-shipping-through-hormuz-by-june-30",
  "event_question": "Will Iran agree to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?",
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices Iran formally agreeing to unrestricted Hormuz shipping by June 30 at 31%, well below even odds with 8 days left.",
    "Progress in Switzerland is real but the headline roadmap targets 60 days, not 8, making the June 30 bar difficult to clear.",
    "A companion Polymarket contract asking only whether any ships transit by June 30 sits at 28%, nearly identical, suggesting markets see partial reopening as nearly as unlikely as a full agreement.",
    "Resolves via uma_oracle; the requirement is a formal Iranian agreement on unrestricted passage, not merely resumed negotiations or transit of a single vessel."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "straitstimes.com",
          "source_url": "https://www.straitstimes.com/world/middle-east/us-iran-talks-go-into-day-2-after-trump-threats-hormuz-closure",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-06-22T13:32:28+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "US-Iran talks continue in Switzerland with encouraging progress reported, but Trump reiterated threats to take over the Strait while Iran has not yet formally agreed to reopen it.",
      "publisher": "straitstimes.com",
      "published_at": "2026-06-22T00:20:37.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.straitstimes.com/world/middle-east/us-iran-talks-go-into-day-2-after-trump-threats-hormuz-closure"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket at 31% is consistent with the parallel any-transit contract at 28%, indicating the market is pricing little daylight between a partial and a full agreement by month-end."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/iran-agrees-to-unrestricted-shipping-through-hormuz-by-june-30/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": null,
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "straitstimes.com: US-Iran talks continue amid Hormuz closure and Trump threats | The Str",
      "url": "https://www.straitstimes.com/world/middle-east/us-iran-talks-go-into-day-2-after-trump-threats-hormuz-closure",
      "published_at": "2026-06-22T00:20:37.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-06-22T13:32:28+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG2026062203 published 2026-06-22T00:20:37.000Z signature sha256-6369f06256f… ← underlying event all signals →