Annual CPI above 3.7 percent nears a pricing cliff
Kalshi ladder
record: CMSIG2026070505 | category: momentum-repricing | target: CM-EVT-FC6YNQPJV4 | published: 2026-07-05
4-bullet brief | narrative
- Ladder prices 69% chance CPI year-over-year exceeds 3.7% for June 2026, falling sharply to 23% above 3.8%.
- Weak payrolls reduce demand-pull inflation pressure; the ladder's drop between 3.7% and 3.8% reflects that uncertainty.
- Above 3.5% is priced at 98%, so above-target inflation is near-certain; the debate is whether it reaches 3.8% or stalls.
- Resolves via the Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI release for June 2026; the year-over-year figure uses the prior-year base from June 2025.
atomic briefs | structured for retrieval
[01] news_event
significance
surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market
- story
- June payrolls plunged to 57,000, rapidly cooling Fed rate hike expectations and refocusing the market on the inflation outlook.exa_search → finance.biggo.com · as_of 2026-07-06T12:00:14+00:00 [mediated]
- publisher
- finance.biggo.com
- published_at
- 2026-07-05T20:25:30.000Z
[02] pm_response
- interp
- The ladder shows a consensus near 3.7% annual CPI with a sharp probability cliff at 3.8%, signaling high conviction on the band but not the tail.llm_judge_cm_signal_v1 [editorial]
evaluation
News-cycle wires publish on coverage, not editorial selection — the day’s top stories matched to the prediction markets pricing them, so nothing is cherry-picked.
- judge_engine
none — deterministic news-cycle scan- judge_verdict
- auto_published
- judge_confidence
- n/a — no judge gate (deterministic publishing)
- prompt_template
news_cycle_v1github · auditable- match_method
entity_slug_match (mechanical)
citation graph
Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.
internal
- cm_event
- /events/kxcpiyoy-26jun/
external
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/june-2026-cpi-year-over-year-above-3-7-ladder-69-2026-07-05/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/june-2026-cpi-year-over-year-above-3-7-ladder-69-2026-07-05.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_signal("june-2026-cpi-year-over-year-above-3-7-ladder-69-2026-07-05") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
"provenance_version": "0.2.0",
"record_id": "CMSIG2026070505",
"published_at": "2026-07-05T20:25:30.000Z",
"detection": "news_cycle",
"category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
"secondary_tags": [],
"pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
"target_event_id": "CM-EVT-FC6YNQPJV4",
"target_event_slug": "kxcpiyoy-26jun",
"event_question": "CPI year-over-year rate for June 2026",
"bullets": [
"Ladder prices 69% chance CPI year-over-year exceeds 3.7% for June 2026, falling sharply to 23% above 3.8%.",
"Weak payrolls reduce demand-pull inflation pressure; the ladder's drop between 3.7% and 3.8% reflects that uncertainty.",
"Above 3.5% is priced at 98%, so above-target inflation is near-certain; the debate is whether it reaches 3.8% or stalls.",
"Resolves via the Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI release for June 2026; the year-over-year figure uses the prior-year base from June 2025."
],
"atomic_claims": [
{
"type": "news_event",
"field_provenance": {
"story": {
"tier": "mediated",
"method": "exa_search",
"source": "finance.biggo.com",
"source_url": "https://finance.biggo.com/news/e2b2479d-ad74-47db-bf75-11a5ce24b089",
"retrieved_at": "2026-07-06T12:00:14+00:00"
}
},
"significance": {
"threshold": 5,
"threshold_unit": "rank",
"passed": true,
"reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
},
"story": "June payrolls plunged to 57,000, rapidly cooling Fed rate hike expectations and refocusing the market on the inflation outlook.",
"publisher": "finance.biggo.com",
"published_at": "2026-07-05T20:25:30.000Z",
"source_url": "https://finance.biggo.com/news/e2b2479d-ad74-47db-bf75-11a5ce24b089"
},
{
"type": "pm_response",
"field_provenance": {
"notes": {
"tier": "editorial",
"method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
}
},
"notes": "The ladder shows a consensus near 3.7% annual CPI with a sharp probability cliff at 3.8%, signaling high conviction on the band but not the tail."
}
],
"evaluation": {
"judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
"judge_verdict": "auto_published",
"judge_confidence": null,
"prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
},
"citations": {
"internal": {
"cm_event": "/events/kxcpiyoy-26jun/",
"related": []
},
"external": {
"venue_a": "https://kalshi.com/markets/KXCPIYOY-26JUN-T3.8",
"venue_b": null,
"benchmark": null
}
},
"sources": [
{
"label": "finance.biggo.com: U.S. June Nonfarm Payrolls Plunge to 57,000, Rapidly Cooling Fed Rate",
"url": "https://finance.biggo.com/news/e2b2479d-ad74-47db-bf75-11a5ce24b089",
"published_at": "2026-07-05T20:25:30.000Z",
"retrieved_at": "2026-07-06T12:00:14+00:00"
}
],
"field_provenance": {
"pm_data": "kalshi_api",
"news_context": "exa_search",
"editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
}
}
PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1