Fed funds upper bound anchors in 3.50-3.75 percent band

{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026071505",
  "published_at": "2026-07-15T00:00:00.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-4ZQLQPNH91",
  "target_event_slug": "kxfed-26sep",
  "event_question": "June 2026 Fed funds upper bound",
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi ladder pins the Fed funds upper bound in the 3.50-3.75% range: 92% above 3.50% but only 31% above 3.75%.",
    "The Beige Book's picture of rising activity and only marginal inflation easing is consistent with the market's central scenario of a hold near current levels.",
    "A separate ladder for a later meeting shows 86% above 3.50% but only 34% above 3.75%, nearly identical to this one, suggesting markets see no imminent move.",
    "Producer prices fell by the largest amount since the pandemic per Story 6, which argues against rate hikes, consistent with the low probability above 3.75%."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "AOL",
          "source_url": "https://www.aol.com/articles/economic-activity-rise-inflation-may-181529000.html",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-07-16T10:04:17+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "The Fed Beige Book showed broadly rising economic activity and employment growth with inflation easing only slightly, providing context for the next FOMC meeting in two weeks.",
      "publisher": "AOL",
      "published_at": "2026-07-15T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.aol.com/articles/economic-activity-rise-inflation-may-181529000.html"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi ladder resolves via Federal Reserve official rate announcement; the tight clustering between the two meeting ladders signals a consensus hold scenario."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/kxfed-26sep/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": "https://kalshi.com/markets/KXFED-26SEP-T3.75",
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "AOL: Economic activity rising and inflation easing slightly, Fed survey sho",
      "url": "https://www.aol.com/articles/economic-activity-rise-inflation-may-181529000.html",
      "published_at": "2026-07-15T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-16T10:04:17+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}