Year-over-year CPI for June seen near 3.7-3.8% in market pricing

{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026070408",
  "published_at": "2026-07-04T11:20:00.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-FC6YNQPJV4",
  "target_event_slug": "kxcpiyoy-26jun",
  "event_question": "June 2026 CPI year-over-year inflation rate",
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi ladder implies June 2026 year-over-year CPI in the 3.7-3.8% range: 74% above 3.7% but only 22% above 3.8%, a sharp inflection at 3.8%.",
    "The weak June NFP print of 57,000 jobs and Bitcoin's rate-cut-driven rally are consistent with a market that expects inflation to remain elevated even as growth slows.",
    "A CPI print above 3.7% year over year would confirm the stagflationary backdrop flagged by multiple news sources this week, consistent with the low probability (9%) of an outsized Fed cut (CM-EVT-RWRZ1R3SD6).",
    "The monthly CPI ladder (CM-EVT-KJ2LGV0M57) implies June monthly CPI near -0.3% to -0.2%, meaning base effects are holding the year-over-year figure elevated even as recent monthly readings soften."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Ifeanyi Egede",
          "source_url": "https://coinnews.com/news/bitcoin-200-week-sma-resistance-jobs-data-rally/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-07-05T10:07:52+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Bitcoin touched $62,295 on July 5 as weak US payrolls data boosted rate-cut hopes, with the 200-week simple moving average capping the rally.",
      "publisher": "Ifeanyi Egede",
      "published_at": "2026-07-04T11:20:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://coinnews.com/news/bitcoin-200-week-sma-resistance-jobs-data-rally/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi ladder contract; the sharp drop in probability above 3.8% defines the market's ceiling for this inflation print, consistent with the broader macro picture this week."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/kxcpiyoy-26jun/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": "https://kalshi.com/markets/KXCPIYOY-26JUN-T3.8",
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Ifeanyi Egede: Bitcoin Hits 9-Day High but 200-Week SMA Holds as Ceiling",
      "url": "https://coinnews.com/news/bitcoin-200-week-sma-resistance-jobs-data-rally/",
      "published_at": "2026-07-04T11:20:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-05T10:07:52+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}