June Fed funds upper bound pricing clusters at 3.50 to 3.75 percent

{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026061602",
  "published_at": "2026-06-16T04:03:15.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "PRE_EVENT_PRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-4ZQLQPNH91",
  "target_event_slug": "kxfed-26sep",
  "event_question": "June 2026 Fed funds upper bound",
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi ladder pins the June 2026 Fed funds upper bound in the 3.50-3.75% range: 95% above 3.50% but only 36% above 3.75%.",
    "Current Fed funds target is 4.25-4.50%; the ladder implies markets price in significant cuts by the end of this rate cycle, well below Warsh's debut level.",
    "PGIM separately argues the market-implied rate path is underpriced, suggesting the current ladder distribution may be too dovish.",
    "A companion ladder (CM-EVT-PHWX2H6DM5) shows nearly identical distribution, corroborating the 3.50-3.75% implied range with high cross-market consistency."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "CHRISTOPHER RUGABER — AP Economics Writer",
          "source_url": "https://www.wral.com/news/ap/9a65c-all-eyes-turn-to-fed-chair-kevin-warsh-and-his-first-moves-on-interest-rates/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-06-16T12:50:14+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Kevin Warsh chairs his first Fed meeting Wednesday with markets watching for rate-path signals amid elevated inflation.",
      "publisher": "CHRISTOPHER RUGABER — AP Economics Writer",
      "published_at": "2026-06-16T04:03:15.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.wral.com/news/ap/9a65c-all-eyes-turn-to-fed-chair-kevin-warsh-and-his-first-moves-on-interest-rates/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Two Kalshi ladders converge on the same 3.50-3.75% implied endpoint, reinforcing the distribution read without contradicting the June hold contract."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/kxfed-26sep/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": "https://kalshi.com/markets/KXFED-26SEP-T3.75",
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "CHRISTOPHER RUGABER, AP Economics Writer: All eyes turn to Fed chair Kevin Warsh and his first moves on interest",
      "url": "https://www.wral.com/news/ap/9a65c-all-eyes-turn-to-fed-chair-kevin-warsh-and-his-first-moves-on-interest-rates/",
      "published_at": "2026-06-16T04:03:15.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-06-16T12:50:14+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}