Longer-run Fed funds upper bound builds toward 3.75-4.0%

{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026081203",
  "published_at": "2026-08-12T00:00:00.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-MR57HVWJT3",
  "target_event_slug": "kxfed-26dec",
  "event_question": "Fed funds upper bound at a later FOMC meeting",
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi ladder for a later meeting prices 79% above 3.50% and 53% above 3.75%, implying the mode sits in the 3.75-4.0% range.",
    "News consensus expects a September hold, but the later-meeting ladder shows markets see rates staying elevated well beyond September.",
    "Compare the near-term ladder (CM-EVT-4ZQLQPNH91) at only 29% above 3.75%: the term structure implies cuts arrive slowly, not in one move.",
    "Resolves via Federal Reserve policy announcement for the relevant meeting; the wide spread between 3.75% and 4.0% reflects genuine uncertainty on cut timing."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "economictimes.indiatimes.com",
          "source_url": "https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/us-stocks/news/us-fed-expected-to-leave-rates-unchanged-next-month-after-soft-inflation-data/articleshow/133191697.cms",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-08-14T09:03:59+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Economists and market participants expect the Fed to leave rates unchanged in September following soft July inflation data.",
      "publisher": "economictimes.indiatimes.com",
      "published_at": "2026-08-12T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/us-stocks/news/us-fed-expected-to-leave-rates-unchanged-next-month-after-soft-inflation-data/articleshow/133191697.cms"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi's later-meeting ladder diverges meaningfully from the near-term one, revealing a slow-cut path rather than a sharp dovish pivot."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/kxfed-26dec/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": "https://kalshi.com/markets/KXFED-26DEC-T4.00",
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "economictimes.indiatimes.com: US Fed expected to leave rates unchanged next month after soft inflati",
      "url": "https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/us-stocks/news/us-fed-expected-to-leave-rates-unchanged-next-month-after-soft-inflation-data/articleshow/133191697.cms",
      "published_at": "2026-08-12T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-08-14T09:03:59+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}