May 2026 payroll consensus anchors near 90K-100K jobs

Name: May 2026 payroll consensus anchors near 90K-100K jobs
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-06-03T12:15:00.000Z
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Kalshi ladder

record: CMSIG2026060302 | category: momentum-repricing | target: CM-EVT-QH49Q7F1N3 | published: 2026-06-03

4-bullet brief | narrative

Kalshi pins May 2026 nonfarm payrolls in the 90K-100K range: 53% above 90K but only 41% above 100K.
ADP's 122K print is above the Kalshi modal range, suggesting official payrolls could surprise to the upside relative to current market pricing.
Separately, rising jobless claims (Story 7) and the Challenger report showing 97K job cuts in May (Story 8) argue the ADP beat may not fully carry into the BLS headline.
The Kalshi contract resolves via FRED/BLS official nonfarm payrolls data; the BLS and ADP series regularly diverge, limiting ADP's predictive edge.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] news_event

significance

surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market

story: ADP reported 122,000 private-sector jobs added in May, above the depressed consensus, ahead of Friday's official nonfarm payrolls release.exa_search → ADP, Inc. · as_of 2026-06-05T11:24:05+00:00
publisher: ADP, Inc.
published_at: 2026-06-03T12:15:00.000Z
source_url: https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/adp-national-employment-report-private-sector-employment-increased-by-122-000-jobs-in-may-annual-pay-was-up-4-4-302790127.html

[02] pm_response

interp: Kalshi contract resolves via fred.stlouisfed.org BLS nonfarm payroll release; ADP is a leading but imperfect predictor of the official figure.llm_judge_cm_signal_v1

evaluation

News-cycle wires publish on coverage, not editorial selection — the day’s top stories matched to the prediction markets pricing them, so nothing is cherry-picked.

judge_engine: none — deterministic news-cycle scan
judge_verdict: auto_published
judge_confidence: n/a — no judge gate (deterministic publishing)
prompt_template: news_cycle_v1 github · auditable
match_method: entity_slug_match (mechanical)

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/kxpayrolls-26may/

external

venue_a: https://kalshi.com/markets/KXPAYROLLS-26MAY-T100000

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/may-2026-nonfarm-payrolls-implied-90k-100k-kalshi-2026-06-03/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/may-2026-nonfarm-payrolls-implied-90k-100k-kalshi-2026-06-03.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("may-2026-nonfarm-payrolls-implied-90k-100k-kalshi-2026-06-03")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026060302",
  "published_at": "2026-06-03T12:15:00.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-QH49Q7F1N3",
  "target_event_slug": "kxpayrolls-26may",
  "event_question": "May 2026 nonfarm payrolls",
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi pins May 2026 nonfarm payrolls in the 90K-100K range: 53% above 90K but only 41% above 100K.",
    "ADP's 122K print is above the Kalshi modal range, suggesting official payrolls could surprise to the upside relative to current market pricing.",
    "Separately, rising jobless claims (Story 7) and the Challenger report showing 97K job cuts in May (Story 8) argue the ADP beat may not fully carry into the BLS headline.",
    "The Kalshi contract resolves via FRED/BLS official nonfarm payrolls data; the BLS and ADP series regularly diverge, limiting ADP's predictive edge."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "ADP, Inc.",
          "source_url": "https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/adp-national-employment-report-private-sector-employment-increased-by-122-000-jobs-in-may-annual-pay-was-up-4-4-302790127.html",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-06-05T11:24:05+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "ADP reported 122,000 private-sector jobs added in May, above the depressed consensus, ahead of Friday's official nonfarm payrolls release.",
      "publisher": "ADP, Inc.",
      "published_at": "2026-06-03T12:15:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/adp-national-employment-report-private-sector-employment-increased-by-122-000-jobs-in-may-annual-pay-was-up-4-4-302790127.html"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi contract resolves via fred.stlouisfed.org BLS nonfarm payroll release; ADP is a leading but imperfect predictor of the official figure."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/kxpayrolls-26may/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": "https://kalshi.com/markets/KXPAYROLLS-26MAY-T100000",
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ADP, Inc.: ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by",
      "url": "https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/adp-national-employment-report-private-sector-employment-increased-by-122-000-jobs-in-may-annual-pay-was-up-4-4-302790127.html",
      "published_at": "2026-06-03T12:15:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-06-05T11:24:05+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG2026060302 published 2026-06-03T12:15:00.000Z signature sha256-beac2a7dc04… ← underlying event all signals →