May ADP payrolls above 100K priced near a coin flip
Kalshi ladder
record: CMSIG2026060306 | category: momentum-repricing | target: CM-EVT-QH49Q7F1N3 | published: 2026-06-03
4-bullet brief | narrative
- Kalshi ladder implied May payrolls in the 90K-100K range: 53% above 90K, 41% above 100K, 29% above 125K.
- ADP's 122,000 print beat both the Kalshi market-implied midpoint and the Dow Jones 110K consensus.
- The 29% probability above 125K shows markets had already embedded some upside tail before the print.
- Companion October 2026 ladder (CM-EVT-6CSLHX0K76) implies a softer 70K-80K range, suggesting markets see May as a one-month beat, not a trend shift.
atomic briefs | structured for retrieval
[01] news_event
significance
surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market
- story
- ADP reported 122,000 private-sector jobs added in May, beating the 110,000 consensus estimate.exa_search → Jeff Cox · as_of 2026-06-04T03:24:20+00:00 [mediated]
- publisher
- Jeff Cox
- published_at
- 2026-06-03T12:15:23.000Z
[02] pm_response
- interp
- Kalshi's pre-print distribution undershot the ADP beat; the October ladder shows lingering caution about the labor market.llm_judge_cm_signal_v1 [editorial]
evaluation
News-cycle wires publish on coverage, not editorial selection — the day’s top stories matched to the prediction markets pricing them, so nothing is cherry-picked.
- judge_engine
none — deterministic news-cycle scan- judge_verdict
- auto_published
- judge_confidence
- n/a — no judge gate (deterministic publishing)
- prompt_template
news_cycle_v1github · auditable- match_method
entity_slug_match (mechanical)
citation graph
Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.
internal
- cm_event
- /events/kxpayrolls-26may/
external
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/may-2026-payrolls-implied-90k-100k-kalshi-ladder-2026-06-03/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/may-2026-payrolls-implied-90k-100k-kalshi-ladder-2026-06-03.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_signal("may-2026-payrolls-implied-90k-100k-kalshi-ladder-2026-06-03") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
"provenance_version": "0.2.0",
"record_id": "CMSIG2026060306",
"published_at": "2026-06-03T12:15:23.000Z",
"detection": "news_cycle",
"category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
"secondary_tags": [],
"pre_news_classification": "lagging",
"target_event_id": "CM-EVT-QH49Q7F1N3",
"target_event_slug": "kxpayrolls-26may",
"event_question": "May 2026 private payrolls (ADP)",
"bullets": [
"Kalshi ladder implied May payrolls in the 90K-100K range: 53% above 90K, 41% above 100K, 29% above 125K.",
"ADP's 122,000 print beat both the Kalshi market-implied midpoint and the Dow Jones 110K consensus.",
"The 29% probability above 125K shows markets had already embedded some upside tail before the print.",
"Companion October 2026 ladder (CM-EVT-6CSLHX0K76) implies a softer 70K-80K range, suggesting markets see May as a one-month beat, not a trend shift."
],
"atomic_claims": [
{
"type": "news_event",
"field_provenance": {
"story": {
"tier": "mediated",
"method": "exa_search",
"source": "Jeff Cox",
"source_url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/03/adp-jobs-report-may-2026-payrolls-increase-by-122000.html",
"retrieved_at": "2026-06-04T03:24:20+00:00"
}
},
"significance": {
"threshold": 5,
"threshold_unit": "rank",
"passed": true,
"reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
},
"story": "ADP reported 122,000 private-sector jobs added in May, beating the 110,000 consensus estimate.",
"publisher": "Jeff Cox",
"published_at": "2026-06-03T12:15:23.000Z",
"source_url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/03/adp-jobs-report-may-2026-payrolls-increase-by-122000.html"
},
{
"type": "pm_response",
"field_provenance": {
"notes": {
"tier": "editorial",
"method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
}
},
"notes": "Kalshi's pre-print distribution undershot the ADP beat; the October ladder shows lingering caution about the labor market."
}
],
"evaluation": {
"judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
"judge_verdict": "auto_published",
"judge_confidence": null,
"prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
},
"citations": {
"internal": {
"cm_event": "/events/kxpayrolls-26may/",
"related": []
},
"external": {
"venue_a": "https://kalshi.com/markets/KXPAYROLLS-26MAY-T100000",
"venue_b": null,
"benchmark": null
}
},
"sources": [
{
"label": "Jeff Cox: ADP jobs report May 2026: Payrolls increase by 122,000",
"url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/03/adp-jobs-report-may-2026-payrolls-increase-by-122000.html",
"published_at": "2026-06-03T12:15:23.000Z",
"retrieved_at": "2026-06-04T03:24:20+00:00"
}
],
"field_provenance": {
"pm_data": "kalshi_api",
"news_context": "exa_search",
"editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
}
}
PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1