CM ClearMarket
SYSTEM: LIVE · PRICES: HOURLY REFRESH · COVERAGE: ~2,450 EVENTS / ~20,000 MARKETS · KALSHI + POLYMARKET

Midterm elections on-schedule consensus holds firm

Kalshi 91%
record: CMSIG2026071003 | category: momentum-repricing | target: CM-EVT-HT9T7KMRT5 | published: 2026-07-10
4-bullet brief | narrative
  • The Kalshi prediction market puts 91% on midterm elections proceeding on schedule, resolving via The Washington Post.
  • Trump's firing of EAC members is a significant institutional disruption, yet the Kalshi contract prices only a 9% chance elections are delayed or cancelled.
  • A companion Kalshi contract on proof-of-citizenship requirements for federal voter registration sits at just 12%, suggesting markets see procedural pressure but not structural collapse.
  • Resolution depends on The Washington Post confirming elections occur on the legally scheduled date; court challenges to the EAC firings could be a key wildcard before settlement.
atomic briefs | structured for retrieval
[01] news_event
significance
surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market
story
President Trump fired all remaining members of the U.S. Election Assistance Commission, disabling the only federal agency solely devoted to election administration ahead of the midterms.exa_search → channelnewsasia.com · as_of 2026-07-10T10:49:37+00:00
[mediated]
publisher
channelnewsasia.com
published_at
2026-07-10T02:15:30.000Z
source_url
https://www.channelnewsasia.com/world/trump-us-midterm-election-fires-election-assistance-commission-6245366
[02] pm_response
interp
Kalshi contract resolves via The Washington Post; the 91% price implies markets are absorbing the EAC news as a governance stress, not an existential threat to the election calendar.llm_judge_cm_signal_v1
[editorial]
evaluation

News-cycle wires publish on coverage, not editorial selection — the day’s top stories matched to the prediction markets pricing them, so nothing is cherry-picked.

judge_engine
none — deterministic news-cycle scan
judge_verdict
auto_published
judge_confidence
n/a — no judge gate (deterministic publishing)
prompt_template
news_cycle_v1 github · auditable
match_method
entity_slug_match (mechanical)
citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal
cm_event
/events/kxmidtermhappen-2026/
external
venue_a
https://kalshi.com/markets/KXMIDTERMHAPPEN-2026-T50
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTMLbrowsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset)https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/midterms-happen-on-schedule-kalshi-91-2026-07-10/
JSONREST API for developershttps://clearmarket.fyi/signals/midterms-happen-on-schedule-kalshi-91-2026-07-10.json
MCPagentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)clearmarket.get_signal("midterms-happen-on-schedule-kalshi-91-2026-07-10")
AGENTAI crawler discovery index/llms.txt

PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.

raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026071003",
  "published_at": "2026-07-10T02:15:30.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-HT9T7KMRT5",
  "target_event_slug": "kxmidtermhappen-2026",
  "event_question": "Will the midterm elections happen on schedule?",
  "bullets": [
    "The Kalshi prediction market puts 91% on midterm elections proceeding on schedule, resolving via The Washington Post.",
    "Trump's firing of EAC members is a significant institutional disruption, yet the Kalshi contract prices only a 9% chance elections are delayed or cancelled.",
    "A companion Kalshi contract on proof-of-citizenship requirements for federal voter registration sits at just 12%, suggesting markets see procedural pressure but not structural collapse.",
    "Resolution depends on The Washington Post confirming elections occur on the legally scheduled date; court challenges to the EAC firings could be a key wildcard before settlement."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "channelnewsasia.com",
          "source_url": "https://www.channelnewsasia.com/world/trump-us-midterm-election-fires-election-assistance-commission-6245366",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-07-10T10:49:37+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "President Trump fired all remaining members of the U.S. Election Assistance Commission, disabling the only federal agency solely devoted to election administration ahead of the midterms.",
      "publisher": "channelnewsasia.com",
      "published_at": "2026-07-10T02:15:30.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.channelnewsasia.com/world/trump-us-midterm-election-fires-election-assistance-commission-6245366"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi contract resolves via The Washington Post; the 91% price implies markets are absorbing the EAC news as a governance stress, not an existential threat to the election calendar."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/kxmidtermhappen-2026/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": "https://kalshi.com/markets/KXMIDTERMHAPPEN-2026-T50",
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "channelnewsasia.com: Trump fires Election Assistance Commission members ahead of midterms -",
      "url": "https://www.channelnewsasia.com/world/trump-us-midterm-election-fires-election-assistance-commission-6245366",
      "published_at": "2026-07-10T02:15:30.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-10T10:49:37+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1
record CMSIG2026071003 published 2026-07-10T02:15:30.000Z signature sha256-db1db85abe4… ← underlying event all signals →