Midterm elections on-schedule consensus holds firm at 85 percent

Name: Midterm elections on-schedule consensus holds firm at 85 percent
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-07-18T00:00:00.000Z
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Kalshi 85%

record: CMSIG2026071803 | category: momentum-repricing | target: CM-EVT-HT9T7KMRT5 | published: 2026-07-18

4-bullet brief | narrative

Kalshi contract on midterm elections proceeding on schedule prices at 85%, with trading volume up 3,131% (32.3x) day over day.
Despite Trump administration threats to election officials and claims of broad vulnerabilities, the market still puts only a 15% chance elections are disrupted or delayed.
The volume surge signals the election-interference narrative is pulling fresh attention to this contract, even as the probability itself remains elevated.
Resolves via The Washington Post confirming whether midterm elections are held on their scheduled date.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] news_event

significance

surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market

story: Trump and allies escalated attacks on US election security ahead of midterms, with DHS Secretary Mullin threatening funding cuts to non-compliant states.exa_search → dnyuz.com · as_of 2026-07-18T09:20:01+00:00
publisher: dnyuz.com
published_at: 2026-07-18T00:00:00.000Z
source_url: https://dnyuz.com/2026/07/18/trump-allies-seek-to-sow-mistrust-about-election-security-ahead-of-midterms/

[02] pm_response

interp: Kalshi contract at 85% with a 32x volume spike shows heightened engagement from election-threat news, but the market is not moving toward a disruption scenario.llm_judge_cm_signal_v1

evaluation

News-cycle wires publish on coverage, not editorial selection — the day’s top stories matched to the prediction markets pricing them, so nothing is cherry-picked.

judge_engine: none — deterministic news-cycle scan
judge_verdict: auto_published
judge_confidence: n/a — no judge gate (deterministic publishing)
prompt_template: news_cycle_v1 github · auditable
match_method: entity_slug_match (mechanical)

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/kxmidtermhappen-2026/

external

venue_a: https://kalshi.com/markets/KXMIDTERMHAPPEN-2026-T50

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/midterms-on-schedule-kalshi-85-volume-up-32x-day-day-2026-07-18/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/midterms-on-schedule-kalshi-85-volume-up-32x-day-day-2026-07-18.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("midterms-on-schedule-kalshi-85-volume-up-32x-day-day-2026-07-18")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026071803",
  "published_at": "2026-07-18T00:00:00.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-HT9T7KMRT5",
  "target_event_slug": "kxmidtermhappen-2026",
  "event_question": "Will the midterm elections happen on schedule?",
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi contract on midterm elections proceeding on schedule prices at 85%, with trading volume up 3,131% (32.3x) day over day.",
    "Despite Trump administration threats to election officials and claims of broad vulnerabilities, the market still puts only a 15% chance elections are disrupted or delayed.",
    "The volume surge signals the election-interference narrative is pulling fresh attention to this contract, even as the probability itself remains elevated.",
    "Resolves via The Washington Post confirming whether midterm elections are held on their scheduled date."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "dnyuz.com",
          "source_url": "https://dnyuz.com/2026/07/18/trump-allies-seek-to-sow-mistrust-about-election-security-ahead-of-midterms/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-07-18T09:20:01+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Trump and allies escalated attacks on US election security ahead of midterms, with DHS Secretary Mullin threatening funding cuts to non-compliant states.",
      "publisher": "dnyuz.com",
      "published_at": "2026-07-18T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://dnyuz.com/2026/07/18/trump-allies-seek-to-sow-mistrust-about-election-security-ahead-of-midterms/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi contract at 85% with a 32x volume spike shows heightened engagement from election-threat news, but the market is not moving toward a disruption scenario."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/kxmidtermhappen-2026/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": "https://kalshi.com/markets/KXMIDTERMHAPPEN-2026-T50",
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "dnyuz.com: Trump, allies seek to sow mistrust about election security ahead of mi",
      "url": "https://dnyuz.com/2026/07/18/trump-allies-seek-to-sow-mistrust-about-election-security-ahead-of-midterms/",
      "published_at": "2026-07-18T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-18T09:20:01+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG2026071803 published 2026-07-18T00:00:00.000Z signature sha256-d04cefa4af6… ← underlying event all signals →