CM ClearMarket
SYSTEM: LIVE · PRICES: HOURLY REFRESH · COVERAGE: ~3,860 EVENTS / ~39,200 MARKETS · KALSHI + POLYMARKET

Month-over-month CPI seen flat to slightly negative

Kalshi ladder
record: CMSIG2026110903 | category: momentum-repricing | target: CM-EVT-T57DHL6V48 | published: 2026-11-09
4-bullet brief | narrative
  • Kalshi ladder implies November CPI month-over-month in the -0.1 to 0.0% range: 56% at -0.1%, 29% at 0.0%, only 16% at 0.1% or above.
  • Trading volume on this contract rose 6,389% day-over-day, confirming the CPI release is drawing the largest fresh prediction-market attention of the cycle.
  • The implied flat-to-negative monthly reading sits at odds with the 'persistent inflation' narrative in analyst commentary, suggesting the market is not fully pricing in shelter stickiness.
  • Resolution depends on the Bureau of Labor Statistics monthly CPI release; a reading at or below zero would validate the modal Kalshi pricing.
atomic briefs | structured for retrieval
[01] news_event
significance
surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market
story
The NY Fed's October consumer survey showed stable inflation expectations even as labor market sentiment deteriorated.exa_search → newyorkfed.org · as_of 2026-11-10T07:47:48+00:00
[mediated]
publisher
newyorkfed.org
published_at
2026-11-09T00:00:00.000Z
source_url
https://www.newyorkfed.org/newsevents/news/research/2026/20261109
[02] pm_response
interp
Kalshi ladder; volume up 64.9x day-over-day is the strongest flow signal in today's data set.llm_judge_cm_signal_v1
[editorial]
evaluation

News-cycle wires publish on coverage, not editorial selection — the day’s top stories matched to the prediction markets pricing them, so nothing is cherry-picked.

judge_engine
none — deterministic news-cycle scan
judge_verdict
auto_published
judge_confidence
n/a — no judge gate (deterministic publishing)
prompt_template
news_cycle_v1 github · auditable
match_method
entity_slug_match (mechanical)
citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal
cm_event
/events/kxcpi-26nov/
external
venue_a
https://kalshi.com/markets/KXCPI-26NOV-T0.0
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTMLbrowsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset)https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/november-cpi-mom-implied-near-0-1-to-0-0-kalshi-ladder-2026-11-09/
JSONREST API for developershttps://clearmarket.fyi/signals/november-cpi-mom-implied-near-0-1-to-0-0-kalshi-ladder-2026-11-09.json
MCPagentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)clearmarket.get_signal("november-cpi-mom-implied-near-0-1-to-0-0-kalshi-ladder-2026-11-09")
AGENTAI crawler discovery index/llms.txt

PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.

raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026110903",
  "published_at": "2026-11-09T00:00:00.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-T57DHL6V48",
  "target_event_slug": "kxcpi-26nov",
  "event_question": "CPI month-over-month change (November 2026)",
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi ladder implies November CPI month-over-month in the -0.1 to 0.0% range: 56% at -0.1%, 29% at 0.0%, only 16% at 0.1% or above.",
    "Trading volume on this contract rose 6,389% day-over-day, confirming the CPI release is drawing the largest fresh prediction-market attention of the cycle.",
    "The implied flat-to-negative monthly reading sits at odds with the 'persistent inflation' narrative in analyst commentary, suggesting the market is not fully pricing in shelter stickiness.",
    "Resolution depends on the Bureau of Labor Statistics monthly CPI release; a reading at or below zero would validate the modal Kalshi pricing."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "newyorkfed.org",
          "source_url": "https://www.newyorkfed.org/newsevents/news/research/2026/20261109",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-11-10T07:47:48+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "The NY Fed's October consumer survey showed stable inflation expectations even as labor market sentiment deteriorated.",
      "publisher": "newyorkfed.org",
      "published_at": "2026-11-09T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.newyorkfed.org/newsevents/news/research/2026/20261109"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi ladder; volume up 64.9x day-over-day is the strongest flow signal in today's data set."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/kxcpi-26nov/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": "https://kalshi.com/markets/KXCPI-26NOV-T0.0",
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "newyorkfed.org: Inflation Expectations Stable; Labor Market Expectations Mixed - FEDER",
      "url": "https://www.newyorkfed.org/newsevents/news/research/2026/20261109",
      "published_at": "2026-11-09T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-11-10T07:47:48+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1
record CMSIG2026110903 published 2026-11-09T00:00:00.000Z signature sha256-79528fd554a… ← underlying event all signals →