September CPI seen in the 0.5 percent range by markets

Name: September CPI seen in the 0.5 percent range by markets
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-09-30T00:00:00.000Z
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Kalshi ladder

record: CMSIG2026093004 | category: pre-event-pricing | target: CM-EVT-F9NPW9F1V9 | published: 2026-09-30

4-bullet brief | narrative

The CPI ladder for September 2026 implies a monthly gain in the 0.5%-0.6% range: 91% above 0.4%, 59% above 0.5%, but only 20% above 0.6%.
August PCE core held at 3.0% versus a 3.3% consensus expectation, a cooler-than-feared print; yet the September CPI ladder still prices meaningful inflation, not a collapse.
The sharp drop from 59% to 20% between the 0.5% and 0.6% strikes marks the market's conviction line, above 0.6% is a tail outcome.
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said inflation remains 'too high' even after the softer PCE print, consistent with the ladder's pricing of continued positive monthly CPI gains.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] news_event

significance

surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market

story: August PCE inflation came in below expectations at 3.0% core year-over-year, with the Fed's preferred gauge rising less than forecast.exa_search → Eric Revell · as_of 2026-10-02T14:25:25+00:00
publisher: Eric Revell
published_at: 2026-09-30T00:00:00.000Z
source_url: https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/august-2026-pce-inflation

[02] pm_response

interp: The ladder is sourced from prediction market strikes; no single-venue binary price is available for September CPI month-over-month.llm_judge_cm_signal_v1

evaluation

News-cycle wires publish on coverage, not editorial selection — the day’s top stories matched to the prediction markets pricing them, so nothing is cherry-picked.

judge_engine: none — deterministic news-cycle scan
judge_verdict: auto_published
judge_confidence: n/a — no judge gate (deterministic publishing)
prompt_template: news_cycle_v1 github · auditable
match_method: entity_slug_match (mechanical)

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/kxcpi-26sep/

external

venue_a: https://kalshi.com/markets/KXCPI-26SEP-T0.6

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/sept-2026-cpi-m-m-ladder-implies-0-5-0-6-range-2026-09-30/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/sept-2026-cpi-m-m-ladder-implies-0-5-0-6-range-2026-09-30.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("sept-2026-cpi-m-m-ladder-implies-0-5-0-6-range-2026-09-30")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026093004",
  "published_at": "2026-09-30T00:00:00.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "PRE_EVENT_PRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-F9NPW9F1V9",
  "target_event_slug": "kxcpi-26sep",
  "event_question": "September 2026 CPI month-over-month change",
  "bullets": [
    "The CPI ladder for September 2026 implies a monthly gain in the 0.5%-0.6% range: 91% above 0.4%, 59% above 0.5%, but only 20% above 0.6%.",
    "August PCE core held at 3.0% versus a 3.3% consensus expectation, a cooler-than-feared print; yet the September CPI ladder still prices meaningful inflation, not a collapse.",
    "The sharp drop from 59% to 20% between the 0.5% and 0.6% strikes marks the market's conviction line, above 0.6% is a tail outcome.",
    "Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said inflation remains 'too high' even after the softer PCE print, consistent with the ladder's pricing of continued positive monthly CPI gains."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Eric Revell",
          "source_url": "https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/august-2026-pce-inflation",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-10-02T14:25:25+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "August PCE inflation came in below expectations at 3.0% core year-over-year, with the Fed's preferred gauge rising less than forecast.",
      "publisher": "Eric Revell",
      "published_at": "2026-09-30T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/august-2026-pce-inflation"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "The ladder is sourced from prediction market strikes; no single-venue binary price is available for September CPI month-over-month."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/kxcpi-26sep/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": "https://kalshi.com/markets/KXCPI-26SEP-T0.6",
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Eric Revell: August PCE: Fed's favored inflation gauge rose less than expected | Fo",
      "url": "https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/august-2026-pce-inflation",
      "published_at": "2026-09-30T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-02T14:25:25+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG2026093004 published 2026-09-30T00:00:00.000Z signature sha256-32e0b99f86a… ← underlying event all signals →