September CPI month-over-month implied near 0.5 percent
Kalshi ladder
record: CMSIG2026093003 | category: pre-event-pricing | target: CM-EVT-F9NPW9F1V9 | published: 2026-09-30
4-bullet brief | narrative
- Kalshi ladder implies September CPI MoM near 0.5-0.6%, with 60% above 0.5% but only 18% above 0.6%.
- August core PCE printing at 3.0% versus 3.3% expected suggests some disinflationary momentum, but the ladder still prices a firm monthly gain.
- Rising oil prices cited in the Fox Business story could anchor the 0.5%+ range; the ladder's 91% above 0.4% reflects that floor.
- Resolution depends on BLS CPI release; gasoline and shelter components are the key swing variables given the oil price backdrop.
atomic briefs | structured for retrieval
[01] news_event
significance
surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market
- story
- August PCE inflation came in below the 3.3% expected, with core PCE at 3.0%, reinforcing a softer inflation narrative heading into the September CPI print.exa_search → Eric Revell · as_of 2026-10-03T07:47:35+00:00 [mediated]
- publisher
- Eric Revell
- published_at
- 2026-09-30T00:00:00.000Z
[02] pm_response
- interp
- Kalshi ladder distribution shows a tight consensus around 0.5%, with the soft PCE print not yet sufficient to push the implied level meaningfully lower.llm_judge_cm_signal_v1 [editorial]
evaluation
News-cycle wires publish on coverage, not editorial selection — the day’s top stories matched to the prediction markets pricing them, so nothing is cherry-picked.
- judge_engine
none — deterministic news-cycle scan- judge_verdict
- auto_published
- judge_confidence
- n/a — no judge gate (deterministic publishing)
- prompt_template
news_cycle_v1github · auditable- match_method
entity_slug_match (mechanical)
citation graph
Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.
internal
- cm_event
- /events/kxcpi-26sep/
external
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/sept-cpi-mom-implied-0-5-0-6-kalshi-ladder-2026-09-30/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/sept-cpi-mom-implied-0-5-0-6-kalshi-ladder-2026-09-30.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_signal("sept-cpi-mom-implied-0-5-0-6-kalshi-ladder-2026-09-30") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
"provenance_version": "0.2.0",
"record_id": "CMSIG2026093003",
"published_at": "2026-09-30T00:00:00.000Z",
"detection": "news_cycle",
"category_tag": "PRE_EVENT_PRICING",
"secondary_tags": [],
"pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
"target_event_id": "CM-EVT-F9NPW9F1V9",
"target_event_slug": "kxcpi-26sep",
"event_question": "September 2026 CPI month-over-month change",
"bullets": [
"Kalshi ladder implies September CPI MoM near 0.5-0.6%, with 60% above 0.5% but only 18% above 0.6%.",
"August core PCE printing at 3.0% versus 3.3% expected suggests some disinflationary momentum, but the ladder still prices a firm monthly gain.",
"Rising oil prices cited in the Fox Business story could anchor the 0.5%+ range; the ladder's 91% above 0.4% reflects that floor.",
"Resolution depends on BLS CPI release; gasoline and shelter components are the key swing variables given the oil price backdrop."
],
"atomic_claims": [
{
"type": "news_event",
"field_provenance": {
"story": {
"tier": "mediated",
"method": "exa_search",
"source": "Eric Revell",
"source_url": "https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/august-2026-pce-inflation",
"retrieved_at": "2026-10-03T07:47:35+00:00"
}
},
"significance": {
"threshold": 5,
"threshold_unit": "rank",
"passed": true,
"reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
},
"story": "August PCE inflation came in below the 3.3% expected, with core PCE at 3.0%, reinforcing a softer inflation narrative heading into the September CPI print.",
"publisher": "Eric Revell",
"published_at": "2026-09-30T00:00:00.000Z",
"source_url": "https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/august-2026-pce-inflation"
},
{
"type": "pm_response",
"field_provenance": {
"notes": {
"tier": "editorial",
"method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
}
},
"notes": "Kalshi ladder distribution shows a tight consensus around 0.5%, with the soft PCE print not yet sufficient to push the implied level meaningfully lower."
}
],
"evaluation": {
"judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
"judge_verdict": "auto_published",
"judge_confidence": null,
"prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
},
"citations": {
"internal": {
"cm_event": "/events/kxcpi-26sep/",
"related": []
},
"external": {
"venue_a": "https://kalshi.com/markets/KXCPI-26SEP-T0.6",
"venue_b": null,
"benchmark": null
}
},
"sources": [
{
"label": "Eric Revell: August PCE: Fed's favored inflation gauge rose less than expected | Fo",
"url": "https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/august-2026-pce-inflation",
"published_at": "2026-09-30T00:00:00.000Z",
"retrieved_at": "2026-10-03T07:47:35+00:00"
}
],
"field_provenance": {
"pm_data": "kalshi_api",
"news_context": "exa_search",
"editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
}
}
PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1